Season's over... A Reflective Recap

Ok, so those of you who want to stoke the fire Brady flame should leave this thread and go to the poll thread. I've had a day to come with the grips that the season is over. Abruptly and disappointingly. But, in a LSU eternal optimistic way (not just a pro-Brady way), I've been waiting to write the ... "ok, what the hell happened" post about our season. Many folks would seem to think that in Gumbo's words "the sky is falling". Oh, how they do not realize that as the world turns in college hoops, the basketball gods giveth and taketh away. I don't think that Brady has changed all that much from the coach that was able to get us to the final four overnight... neither did Romar, Calhoun, Prosser, and others that went from NCAA to nothingville in just one short year. Clearly, however, everyone has been asking at this point, what do we do from here?

First off, let's consider some statistics. Across the board, despite a "deeper" team, we were less effective.

First, on offense, our PPG down from 73 ppg to 68. Our FG% went down .465 to .455, but interestingly our 3 pt FG% went UP, .324 to .346. Our typically not so hot assist to turnover ratio went in the wrong direction--we had a -1.6 turnover margin vs. last year at -.3. Our FT% actually went up slightly .69 to .70 this year. What's interesting in our offense was that we turned the ball over more (untested guard play with no D.Mitch), and we were less effective scoring the ball down low, although we launched and made more threes.

Our defense was stable, keeping our opponents shooting around .40 and scoring about 62-63 points. But, our bread and butter, defense and rebounding suffered greater setbacks... our rebounding margin went from +7.8 to +5.7, our steals per game went from 8.3 down to 6.8, and our blocks went from 6.6 per game to 4.8 (Tyrus Thomas, obviously made a pretty big difference--so I come to the conclusion that Tyrus was perhaps a bigger loss than D.Mitch).

It certainly leads one to the conclusion that many came to, which is the loss of senior (adequate but by no means stellar) ball handling, intimidating inside presence, and being able to get a clutch shot when needed did not translate well in '06-'07.

What is the silver lining? What's going to happen next year? I guess I for one don't think that this team, even with what we have now (which is assuming we lose Glen and Lazare), is just going to stand still. We forget that everyone outside of Glen and Darnell are sophomores and it's the natural progression of kids going to college and playing through their senior year that we have to hope for here.

Case in point, Temple's shooting percentage went from .33 to .40, FT % went from .67 to .80, his Assist 2 TO ratio goes from 1.414 to 1.675, ppg went from 5.1 to 8.7. Despite EVERYONE's crying for a point guard, I guess looking at Temple's numbers, we could have done worse. Temple needs to work on his offensive confidence and ability to create offense.

Tas's numbers also went up similarly, FG% went from .44 to .46, with 3pt% going from .295 to .375, scoring going from 11.4 to 14.5 ppg. He didn't improve a whole lot from the line or on his A-2-TO numbers, though. He needs to work on his ball handling and ball decision making in the offseason.

Then, we add Terry Martin. Terry's numbers all went up from his days at Tech. And, consider the following line. 10.8 ppg, .413 from 3 pt % (Darrell Mitchell was .394). Where can Terry improve and must he improve? .56 on FT%, 2.8 rpg, and .83 A-2-TO ratio, and more hustle on D (6 blks and 11 stls vs. 24 blks and 33 stls for Tas' with not that much more minutes).

So, what is next year being built on? Improvement from Temple, Tas' and to a greater degree, Martin, Mason and Rolle (Rolle and Johnson need to get their butts in gear and have some potential to improve quite a bit, if they put the time into the weight room and in their attitudes). If you look at giving up D.Mitch and Tyrus, you see not the same results from Martin, Mason and Rolle. To be fair, you're talking about a senior and a 4th pick in the NBA walking away to replace them with 2 transfers and a sophomore. These guys have room to improve.

And, you add Anthony Randolph (tall athletic guy who can score, block shots and add versatility), DJ Wright (a 65% three point shooter) and pretty athletic wing, and Q Thornton (a mature 6'9" 230 guy who can instantly add blocks and toughness down low). I have hope that these guys will contribute. Signing a Donnell Beverly or Marcus Thornton is also not out of the question. Both guys give you more defensive intensity and ball handling on the perimeter.

I know I'm rambling, but a 17-15 season, playing a much tougher schedule than in the last significant let down year in 2000-2001, might be the kick in the ass this team and Brady needed. It's back to the basics next year, folks.

Also, one other statistic... average paid home attendance this year? UP as well... over 10002 a game this year vs 9469 last year.

Despite the polls, Brady's getting another year, and he's likely to do better, hopefully get back to the dance, and (to the dismay of all the Brady haters) we're in for a few more years of Brady Ball.:yelwink2: Of course, I could be wrong, and another year of no-post season play, and .... :cuss:

:geauxtige :bball: :champs: LSU IS A BASKETBALL SCHOOL. DON'T FORGET THE MAGIC.

 

Tack was here for some of the season but he didn't do anything except against UConn. I say and have said good riddance to that.

Some would say that it is Brady's fault Bass left early despite not going anywhere close to lottery. There were some well-publicized team meltdowns during 2004 (again, thanks Tack).

 

Calhoun's an interesting story. His UConn team was widely reported to have the most talent in all of CBB last year, except they were all me first players. All of his starting 5 got drafted, 4 in the first round. Yet, they had a very disappointing loss to George Mason in the Elite Eight and got the game handed to them against Washington in the Sweet 16.

They also got defeated by Jimmy B's Syracuse team in the Big East championship game last year, putting SU into the tournament only to lose in terrible fashion to aTm. But, I digress.

Calhoun can't be expected to lose all 5 of his starters and do anything, especially with a team of such talent that simply didn't want to do what it took to succeed at the college level. Given his track record, and what he's done with the players that want to succeed (Okafor, Rip Hamilton, Ben Gordon), I'd say he gets a pass.

Glen and Tas' 3pt percentage was up this year, Temple went down from .280 to .269 (so much for all of that shooting during the summer), and Martin shot .388 (http://admin.xosn.com/src/data/lsu/...cume.htm?SPSID=27821&SPID=2166&DB_OEM_ID=5200, not sure where you got that .41 figure).

I think Mitch's athleticism in the backcourt was the difference in the steals number. He would turn quite a few steals into easy layups. However, I'd agree that rebounds, blocks, and PITP (points in the paint) numbers suffer because of Tyrus's absence.

I think that LSU's stats are reasonably close. What the stats do not tell, is that we swept Ole Miss, Auburn, and Arkansas last year while splitting the games with each of them this year. We may be 8-8 and in the tournament right now.....

Arkansas added 2 fine SEC players in Beverly and Ervin, and Hill actually learned how to play offense at times. Lebo improved his Auburn team by a considerable margin, and Andy Kennedy got his average-at-best backcourt of Doyne and Abernethy to play feet above their heads. All this happened while we lost our only player that was a SEC-caliber point guard. What does that translate to? 5-11 and no postseason play.

It was painfully obvious despite these stats (and you cleverly left out the fact that his 3pt% went down to .269 from .280 despite the LOUD TRUMPETING of his offseason work) that he still does not have the athleticism to play point guard in this conference. Each SEC game was an adventure in simply bringing the ball from the end line to across the halfcourt stripe.

Our problem is that Brady wants to play him because of his effort and intensity on defense. He does not provide enough offense, from an assist per game or points standpoint to start in this league at the 1 or the 2 spot, despite his highlight reel defensive plays. I'm sorry....

This is also a guy that simply doesn't fit anywhere. He's not athletic enough to play the 3 and he isn't big enough to consistently play the 4. I love his effort, and his shooting has definitely improved. I love his play on the court...

More later.

 

You've got some good points, but there are some factual issues. I have GTemple's 3 point % from a year ago at .248 (off lsusports.net as of April 10, 2006), and this year it's higher (although as you say still not great). So, perhaps there's just some different numbers we're looking at. I am looking at some statistics from this year before the Ole Miss game, so it could be that this SEC tourney game is draggin the numbers down. As for your Garrett comments, I guess I'm not in agreement with you in all due respect. A 1.6 Assist-2-TO ratio by Garrett is not that bad, and I don't believe it's his "athleticism" that's holding him back. What he is a "slower" more methodical PG, who does need to learn how to better dribble penetrate, and learn when not to make a stupid long, cross court pass at the end of games. But, I'd like to think of that as experience and practice playing the point, not lack of ability. I think someone on this site said not too long ago, when he turned the D.Mitch playing point against Brady... imagine if D.Mitchell got 2 or more years practicing playing point? Perhaps we just have to let Temple continue to learn to play point. Brady should have recruited a better bridge PG to Tommy Mason Griffin in '09... we all know that.

Regardless, you say the stats don't tell the story, and sure, they never do. But, given that we're scoring 5 points less a game, I'd say that those 5 points make a difference between 5-11 and 8-8. The point is that a season can swing one way or the other on relatively few plays per game, a few baskets, a few rebounds or steals. I do think that this year was a disappointment, but to say that we can't improve without some drastic change in leadership is also a little bit extreme. I won't so quickly write off some of the players that came in to play their first year with the Tigers and throw up our hands like "oh well, let's go get back D.Mitch and Tyrus Thomas." What your posts also ignore is the fact that some of these "surprise, upstart" teams like Ole Miss and Auburn just didn't lose players to the NBA or graduation. We're seeing our young more inexperienced team go against the same SEC teams that missed the tourney last year (except Arkansas and 'Bama which were also pretty good already) bring back all of their team. So, don't discount the Tiger's inexperience and ability to grow as a team.

 

Temple isn't the quickest PG but I mean he gives it his all on the defensive side and when you put a full effort playing defense, having to push the ball up the court and running the offense is gonna be tough. Right now I'm satisfied with what he brings to our team, 9 points isn't a lot but he's a point guard and its not too vital for him to score. He is improving his scoring a lot and was clutch for us against Tennessee and thats what really matters, being able to score when it counts.

Maybe its me but I really think he should change his shot maybe because it is painful for me to watch him shoot. He shoots linedrive 3 pointers that lead to long rebounds. Maybe put a little more arc into i don't know i'm not an expert. He could really develop into a strong player, he has size, athleticism, just needs to work on his shot because no one will bench a defensive stopper.

 

from kenpom.com. ive highlighted stats from this year that are significantly worse than last year in red. basically not a ton of difference on O, but some differences in D. you might expect this after losing one of the best defensive rebounders and shot blockers in the country (natl ranking of #6 and 10, respectively). this year, forced less turnover, less steals, less blocks, and got to the line less often. these stats are adjusted for pace (which was significantly lower this year), btw.

2007
http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Louisiana%20St.

Record vs. D-1: 17-15
Luck: -0.100 National Rank=327 (-3.2 wins)

Raw Tempo: 65.0 poss/40 min National Rank=238
Adj Tempo: 64.0 poss/40 min National Rank=274

Offense Defense
Raw Efficiency : 103.9 (143) 95.6 ( 42)
Adj Efficiency : 109.0 ( 85) 90.0 ( 23)

Effective FG% : 50.0 (171) 45.7 ( 30)
Turnover Pct. : 21.3 (181) 18.8 (287)
Off. Rebound% : 36.8 ( 61) 30.3 ( 46)
Free Throw Rate: 22.7 (244) 27.9 ( 17)

3-Point FG% : 33.7 (216) 32.6 ( 62)
2-Point FG% : 49.8 (131) 44.2 ( 31)
Free Throw Pct.: 70.5 (132) 69.7 (201)
Block Pct. : 7.6 ( 71) 12.7 ( 39)
Steal Pct. : 10.3 (199) 10.4 (124)

3PA/FGA : 29.1 (278) 32.3 (104)
A/FGM : 55.6 (157) 44.0 ( 4)


2006

http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Louisiana St.&y=2006

Record vs. D-1: 22-8
Luck: -0.001 National Rank=146 (-0.0 wins)

Raw Tempo: 69.2 poss/40 min National Rank=86
Adj Tempo: 68.7 poss/40 min National Rank=95

Offense Defense
Raw Efficiency : 104.9 (114) 92.6 ( 21)
Adj Efficiency : 109.9 ( 50) 85.7 ( 4)

Effective FG% : 50.1 (131) 45.7 ( 32)
Turnover Pct. : 21.9 (196) 21.0 (175)
Off. Rebound% : 38.4 ( 18) 28.6 ( 35)
Free Throw Rate: 25.9 (130) 24.0 ( 4)

3-Point FG% : 32.4 (265) 34.5 (145)
2-Point FG% : 50.5 ( 85) 42.8 ( 15)
Free Throw Pct.: 69.0 (176) 69.2 (161)
Block Pct. : 9.4 (214) 16.0 ( 8)
Steal Pct. : 9.5 ( 87) 11.8 ( 56)

3PA/FGA : 21.6 (333) 31.8 (113)
A/FGM : 56.0 (165) 45.3 ( 5)

 

my 2c on some of the tger vs. deek going on here.

tas can play 3 or 4 effectively in sec. my concern is if he can be THE guy.

gt's 2fg% AND 3fg% have gone up from last year. definately use kenpom for stats. gives both raw and tempo adjusted.

gt is athletic enough to play pg or sg in sec. you can argue that he had a better season than taurean green (ppg gets so much weight nationally).

the problem with this season has to do with gt, though. after all this stat mumbo jumbo i still think the biggest difference between the two seasons is darrel's clutch shots (which gt obviously hasnt done). what did he win for us last year???3. he probably wouldve had more chances this year. one shot at or near the end wouldve likely won the following games---WichSt, UTx, UGA, Bama, UT, OM and maybe UK.

maybe even only with OM and UGA going our way this year there wouldve been an ncaa invitation, but certainly if you add UK, UT or UTx.

you cant expect a frosh to come in and fill that role, so it has to be martin, gt or tas. my $$ is on a combo of martin and tas. tas can slash and martin will even out a bit next year (please). --or maybe a juco guy.

 

Bravo, Gumbo'.

I think you pointed out some of the same points and made them clearly. Yes, we often forget that this game is literally decided by bounces of the ball, shots made at the end of regulation, steals or blocks here or there to make the momentum shift. The fine line between a winning and losing season lies in that.

So, I've been arguing much of the season, we ARE a reasonably talented team. Tas' and Big Baby were Mcd A-As. Magnum Rolle was a top 20 guy. Terry Martin was a top 75 guy and Mason was a top 35 guy out of high school. The other guys weren't as highly regarded: Lazare, Temple, Voogd, Farrer, Johnson, etc. BUT, we forget that most of these guys were young, or perhaps were not asked last year to carry the load. That can be the difference in a game making the turnover or assist, not getting a steal, or not hitting the game winning shot. Tyrus was sort of a very unusual situation, and honestly he spoiled us. He had Big Baby to detract attention from him and he was scary athletic and aggressive, but he was able to roam within his team. Mitchell, well, was a battle tested senior (I don't remember him hitting nearly as many game winning shots as a sophomore).

While folks may have this perception that we don't have talent b/c of the results of the year, they must realize that the talent is there but folks (other than the nba lottery ready kids like Durant) improve over time. And next year if 3 or 4 of those games we lost this year go our way, we're probably in the tournament.

That's why despite Deek's crying for a point guard, I don't want to discount Marcus Thornton. He's had to win games for Kilgore and it's maturity we may need just as much as talent.

 

One thing stats dont show is heart and discipline in playing your game.

I didnt get to see the tigers very much just the games on tv but in every game i saw Big Baby did not play his game. He was out taking threes and didnt play strong inside as well. I blame Brady for this. Also I think losing the weight took some of his inside game away.

For college he needed that weight. For the pros maybe not but their is no doubt he hurt his NBA stock last year and if he is smart will return for one last year in college to improve his draft stock.

Otherwise it is Europe basketball.

In my opinion Big Baby will not be able to handle the NBA game as well.