i dont want to give the impression that i dont think glen can be a good nba player, but i do think the odds are that horford will be better. as evidence, i refer again to ken pomeroy's stats.
http://kenpom.com/sr.php?team=Louisiana%20St. he breaks down stats to basically normalize them per possession, because its a bit misleading to compare # of rebounds a game of two players with substantially different amount of pt.
comparing horford to davis
davis' relative strengths--basically nothing, they are both good rebounders with glen being a bit stronger on the offensive end and horford better on the defensive end.
horford's relative strengths--ft rate (how often he gets to the line), eFG%, blocks, and pomeroy's overall offensive rating. surprisingly, horford took only a few less shots than glen (as a % of the teams shots)
of course this doesnt account for a lot of things like how the players are used and how other teams play them. however i do think its better than just comparing # of pts and rebounds/game.
how bout this? what happens to each team if you switch players? honestly, i dont have a solid opinion about it.
but in the end, TGer'nLHornLand, i disagree with you on glen's future, because your assessment of his chances are dependent on his losing (more)weight (and keeping it off), and there is just not a good track record of players doing this.
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