Hi KCal...hope you are doing well and thanks for the welcome back! I should have been more clear about the word polls. Some on here have a tendency to pull out one poll or a single metric from a poll to prove their point, or they produce a poll that has no reputation or standing. The poll you've presented is a very legit poll from IBD/TIPP, which is on of the polls factored into the numbers I use. Go to 270towin.com to get a complete list of the polls. In response to your poll, I would point out that Biden leads 52-43. Further, I would also point to the gender demographic where Trump is losing women by a historic number. Given that females make up 51% of the electorate it will be hard to win the election without at least getting to a tie with women. Further, I would point out that BIden is now tied with Trump in the over 65 demographic, which is a large departure from 2016.
Biden had a rally in Nevada. There were more people in the hired mariachi band than spectators. There was a Buden-Harris rally in Arizona. Nobody showed up
Well go ahead then. I use the polls from 270towin.com to make my computations. Go ahead and have at it. Trump is still losing and losing badly. Irrelevant. This is 2020, not 2016. Trump had no record he had to run on in 2016, now he does and it isn't pretty. Trump also made a lot of promises to blue collar working people that he hasn't kept and he is paying for it. When are you guys going to get it through your head that Clinton isn't on the ticket? Biden is far more likeable. November 3rd we will find out for sure and then I'll be back to get your reaction. We aren't talking about the electoral college, Einstein. We are talking about popular opinion and how we should determine popular opinion.
It’s relevant because the same people polling haven’t changed their practices. When you just want to call 2016 and outlier but still operate the same the answer is obvious.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.detroitnews.com/amp/5686440002 “The RealClearPolitics average had Clinton +6.5 in Wisconsin on Election Day in 2016. In August of that year, she had been +11.5. Not a single poll featured on RCP during the entire campaign showed Donald Trump winning the state. Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden has a +3.5 average right now — which is to say, he is underperforming Clinton in the middle of a pandemic and ensuing economic collapse. This is the case in several battleground states.” “Other swing states find Biden similarly underperforming. He is +5.5 in Pennsylvania at time of writing. Hillary Clinton was +9.2 the same day in 2016. Polls would tighten, but Clinton still ended up +2 on Election Day. Biden is +7 in Michigan at time of writing, and Clinton was +9 on the same day in 2016. Even in traditionally Democratic Minnesota polls show some tightening.” “At time of writing, Florida is the only battleground state where Biden (+3.7) is outperforming Clinton (+2.7). Clinton was up +2.8 in August. The Florida polls would also tighten in 2016. Now, if Trump loses Florida, none of the other swing states are going to matter, anyway. That said, Democrat Andrew Gillum was + 3.6 over Republican Ron DeSantis in the governor's race and Bill Nelson was +2.6 over Rick Scott in the Senate race on Election Day in 2018. Both Democrats were above 50% in at least three of the last five polls conducted in the state, and both lost their elections. That's a trend.”
