Very few on here have heard my thoughts on this storm...what I actually believe will happen. Nootch is one of them. I do not want to sound doomsday, but this is what I believe, and I believe the models are beginning to hint this way too with the 8pm runs.
I have thought all along that this storm is NOT going to move as far west as they have been forecasting. There has been a trough that has been supposed to lift out of the area for three days now, and it has yet to do so. The ridge that was going to turn it west was supposed to take it's place. This hasn't happened either, because the trough is still in place.
FWIW, I have been calling for an Alabama landfall...and I am probably wrong on that. However, I still maintain it will hit somewhere between GI and Mobile.
-Trough may move out, but too late to turn such a large and powerful system that much...unless it slows way down.
-The storm has feeder bands over FL, and that little bit of friction will make it hard to turn left, too.
-I have NEVER seen a hurricane turn left at landfall...again...friction won't allow it. (Tropical storms, yes...but strong hurricanes, no)
-This particular storm hasn't moved due NW all day. I have a site...a radar loop...and I put longitude and latitude lines on it. If a storm is moving due NW, the eye would move from the bottom left corner of the box to the top left corner. Today, the eye started in the middle of the bottom, and will exit the box at the top left.
I do not understand why the NHC is afraid to call the movement NNW. I am positive they know more than I do, and I know they cannot react to every wobble. But when I have a 12 hr loop showing a NNW movement, it's moving NNW. Further, that may mean it's only 30 miles east of their forecast for the day, but after it crosses the entire GOM, assuming it keeps the same motion, it's a difference of over 100 miles.
I put a straightedge on the loop today, keeping the eye on the edge. If the storm continues on is current path...extrapolated out...it hits Pascagoula/Mobile. Will it do this? I don't know. A wobble here or a wobble there will make a difference. But I just don't see it turning west as it approaches landfall. If it turns more west, it'll be tomorrow while it's still out in the GOM. It better hurry, because the forward speed has increased a good bit in the past 24 hours.
I say none of this to impart fear. If that were the case, I would tell Nootch the NHC is right. That said, I AM NOT A METEOROLOGIST, A HURRICANE EXPERT, or anything of the sort. I've just done a little studying in my younger years, and have kept up with these things all my life.
Best piece of advice; if you are in the cone, do as you would if you KNEW it was coming right at you. I hope and pray everyone has already made their preps, and evacuated if they're in a low lying area. This stands to be a severe surge event, and surge kills.
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