With Alabama falling to LSU on Saturday, there are only two undefeated teams in Division I-A. We all agree that USC (10-0) and Texas (10-0) are the top two teams in the country and likely will meet in the Rose Bowl for the BCS national championship.
But who's No. 3? What if the unthinkable happens and USC or Texas loses down the stretch? Suddenly there are a bunch of one-loss teams that will step to the front and scream: Why not us?
Specifically:
• Miami (8-1): The Hurricanes have won eight in a row since an opening-night loss to Florida State (10-7) on Sept. 5. After their beat down of Virginia Tech on Nov. 5, it's hard to see anybody playing better. Look for the Hurricanes to be No. 3 in today's new BCS standings.
• LSU (8-1): If not for one regrettable half against Tennessee, the Tigers would be 9-0 and right in the middle of a big BCS argument.
• Penn State (9-1): Joe Paterno and the Nittany Lions are one play away (a last-second touchdown pass by Michigan) from also being undefeated. Could you see the BCS formula leaving an undefeated Joe Pa out of the Rose Bowl?
• Virginia Tech (8-1): Despite getting thrashed by Miami, I still believe that this team can beat anybody on a given day.
Alabama (9-1), Oregon (9-1), UCLA (9-1) and West Virginia (8-1) could all make arguments, but not as compelling as the other four.
Clip and save this. If USC or Texas loses in the next three weeks, it just might come in handy.
Weekend games may bring clarity
Two games on Saturday — Alabama at Auburn and Clemson at South Carolina — will have a profound impact on the entire SEC Bowl picture. Here's just a glimpse the discussions that are going on behind the scenes.
• If Alabama beats Auburn to finish 10-1 but does not go to the SEC championship game, the conference likely will place two teams in the BCS: The champion (LSU or Georgia) to the Sugar and Alabama to the Fiesta. That will affect every other bowl that has a tie-in with an SEC team.
• If Auburn beats Alabama to finish 9-2 but does not reach the SEC title game, you can book the Tigers into the Capital One Bowl in Orlando. That means Alabama, at 9-2, would be looking for a home. The Cotton Bowl gets the first pick in the SEC West after the Capital One and would take Alabama.
• The Outback Bowl in Tampa would get the first pick from the SEC East after the Capital One and would be able to choose from South Carolina, Georgia (if it loses to LSU), Florida or Tennessee. If South Carolina beats Clemson, we believe the Outback would pass on Georgia and take the Gamecocks.
• Why would the Outback snub the Bulldogs? Because Georgia was there in January and South Carolina will promise to buy at least 30,000 tickets. Georgia sold about 15,000 tickets for January's Outback Bowl.
• If Florida beats Florida State and South Carolina loses, the Outback likely would take an 8-3 Florida.
• The Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl would take Georgia if it could pair the Bulldogs with Florida State and create the first Mark Richt-Bobby Bowden matchup.
• If South Carolina loses to Clemson on Saturday, the likelihood increases that the Gamecocks would be available for the Peach, creating the possibility of a Steve Spurrier-Bobby Bowden matchup. All this assumes that Florida State will lose in the ACC championship game.
And all that, dear friends, just scratches the surface of what's going on in the bowl business right now.
Bowl slots emerging
• Rose Bowl (BCS Championship), Jan. 4: With Alabama suffering its first loss, the BCS championship game looks like an undisputed No. 1 USC (10-0) vs. No. 2 Texas (10-0). The Trojans do not have a gimme in No. 16 Fresno State (8-1) on Saturday while Texas gets the week off before hosting Texas A&M on Nov. 25. If either stumbles, surging Miami (8-1) is there to step into the BCS championship game.
Projected game: No. 1 USC vs. No. 2 Texas
• Orange Bowl, Jan. 3: Miami (8-1), which should be No. 3 in the today's BCS standings, looks pretty untouchable right now with regular-season games remaining against Georgia Tech and Virginia. If the Hurricanes win out and beat Florida State in the ACC championship game, they likely will host the Big Ten champion in the Orange. That will be Penn State (9-1) if the Nittany Lions can win at Michigan State (5-5) on Saturday.
Projected game: Miami vs. Penn State
• Fiesta Bowl, Jan. 2: The Fiesta still likes Notre Dame (7-2) if the Irish can win their final two games, against Syracuse and Stanford. If Alabama (9-1) beats Auburn on Saturday but does not reach the SEC championship game, the Fiesta will lean heavily toward a Notre Dame-Alabama matchup. If Alabama stumbles on Saturday, don't be surprised if Ohio State (8-2) gets in the mix if the Buckeyes beat Michigan.
Projected game: Notre Dame vs. Alabama
• Sugar Bowl, Jan. 2: LSU (8-1) looks like the team to beat in the SEC right now. Wins over Ole Miss and Arkansas would put the Tigers into the SEC championship game, probably against Georgia. The winner of that game will go to the Sugar to host the Big East champion, probably West Virginia (8-1).
Projected game: LSU vs. West Virginia
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