The wind direction, storm track, tidal surge, and many other factors abound in hurricane modeling. Scenarios are being made on the supercomputer at LSU that try to predict conditions based on every combination of variables. Some of them are pretty scary. A Class 5 hurricane coming up through Breton Sound across the city, pushing a big storm surge would completely fill the levee bowl in New Orleans. Over 20 feet of water in mid-city near the cemetaries. And nowhere to drain it to. Research projects currently underway are trying to determine just how much crude oil and chemicals, dead and live animals, hazardous waste, and all the filth of the city will impact the tens of thousands of survivors in the water. The evacuation routes are limited by Lake Pontchartrain and subject to flooding. It will be almost impossible to prevent casualties in the thousands in such a scenario.
Right about where I live. I got the hell out of Dodge this morning and came back to BR, taking w/ me my cat, some clothes, and a few personal belongings. Everything else is insured, but that will be little consolation for losing my home.
The nightmare scenario is this: A strong Cat 4/Cat 5 hurricane (Ivan, let's say) is out in the Gulf moving towards the Louisiana coast. Any SE Louisiana landfall is bad, but the absolute worst two landfall vectors are: -a westward moving hurricane approaching from southeast over Lake Borgne, coming onshore in NE Plaquemines Parish -a northward moving hurricane coming onshore at or just west of the mouth of the Mississippi. This would mean the eye of the storm would pass just to the south or just to the west of New Orleans, and the NE quadrant, the most built up and most violent part of a tropical system, where the highest winds and heaviest storm surge are at, would directly impact the city. A strong Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane would have a storm surge in excess of 25 feet piled up near the eyewalls due to the very low pressure, enough to top the levees that guard the city by 10 feet in some places. It would be similar to the Galveston hurricane of 1906; it would come so hard and so fast that anything not 20 feet off the ground or firmly secured to the ground would be swept away. Millions of gallons of seawater built up by the surge would be moved inland by the low pressure dome, top the levees, and flood the city's bowl, with no way to get it out. It would destroy the city, and tens of thousands would die. And yes, as the Yahoo article touched on, the environmental impact would be very bad as well. Ivan may very well pass to the east of us, and this doomsday scenario would be avoided. But this storm has yet to do anything it's been predicted to do. The tracks have always been overly generous with their turn angles; they have doggedly predicted the storm would curve sharply to the northeast ever since it became a named storm. It has yet to do so. Ivan may, unfortunately, surprise us one more time.
Well the entire Wetlands debate obviously will be stirred up again and with more intensity. Something needs to be done. Unfortunately that does not look likely in the very forseeable future.
So far so good with New Orleans looking like they dodged a frickin huge bullet. Pensacola will be quite a mess.
islstl looking at recent satalite photos NO is not out of the woods yet. Please tell me why you think pensacola is in so much trouble. I beliee it is still heading NNW
Well the NE of any hurricane is the worst part. So the eye being centered coming on land at Mobile means that Pensacola gets the VERY worst of the storm. New Orleans would be spared, but of course will get severe rains from the western wall of the storm. Auburn should actually be quite a mess too from the projected path.
