When I did my analysis, it totally slipped past me that yes Michigan could easily end up #3 (USC favored to win its last 2 games) in the BCS, and therefore the dreaded scenario of WVU finishing #4 would be meaningless (other than they would be the highest ranked team remaining not getting an automatic bid). I really do think that if Notre Dame loses to USC, and they will, that an LSU team would be chosen over Notre Dame. But I think Notre Dame would get the last at-large over WVU (assuming they and Louisville both win out).
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought a BCS conference team would get an automatic at-large bid if they finish in the top 4, assuming there are any at-large bids still available. WV at #4 gets them in automatically?
After some more thought, I agree with you that there's a very good chance that we would be picked over ND, but it's only because of the fortunate circumstances surrounding the Rose Bowl. If the NCG game is between OSU and either Mich/USC, then the Rose will pick first as they will be the only Bowl losing a host team. If USC is in the NCG they will most certainly pick Mich as the first replacement for OSU and then they pick again to replace USC. If Mich goes to the NCG then they pick first to replace OSU to play USC. The advantage we have over ND is that ND has already played and probably lost to both Mich and USC. The question is would they prefer a rematch over a game with us? I would think the latter, but I don't think it's a certainty. In almost any other circumstance ND would be picked over us imo.
If Mich is ranked 3rd, then they would get the automatic bid under #5. #6 comes into play only if no team qualifies under item 5. So if Mich is ranked third, W. Virginia would be eligible to be picked of course, but it would not be a guarantee.
That's not how I read the rules. Automatic qualifiers would be ... 6 conference winners Boise, if they are in the top 12 ND, if they are in the top 8 Michigan That leaves at least one spot. Rule #6 states if any at-large bids remain after the first 5 rules are met, the #4 ranked team is an automatic qualifier if they are in a BCS conference.
If Mich is ranked 3rd, they would qualify under paragraph No. 5. No. 6 is explicitly conditioned on whether or not a team qualifies under paragraph No. 5.
My bad, you're right IndianaTiger. I missed this point: WV could only be an automatic qualifier at #4 if Michigan is #2.
