An early breakdown of LSU-AU

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by cadillacattack, Sep 6, 2006.

  1. cadillacattack

    cadillacattack Illegitimi non carborundum est

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    Back for my annual breakdown of the game and the expected feedback I know I can count on from the regulars. So, with as much objectivity as I can muster, here goes .....

    Offense
    QB - Cox versus Russell …… Russell is harder to bring down, and has a stronger arm ….. slight Advantage LSU.

    RB – Kenny Irons cashed two bills on LSU’s defense last season …. in Tiger Stadium. I’m betting Pellini hasn’t forgotten about that. Lester and Stewart are a strong accompaniment. Broussard and Vincent are both finally healthy ……. Advantage: Auburn.

    OL - LSU lost Niswanger, Whitworth, and Livings and are just now pulling this line back together. Auburn replaced 2 starters anchored by the best guard tandem in the conference ……. Slight Advantage: Auburn

    TE – LSU’s Zinger is a solid blocking TE but has not shown much in the way of receiving. AU counters with two dual-threats in Bennett and Trott ……. Slight Advantage: Auburn

    WR - LSU has , perhaps, the finest WR corps in the conference. The crew of Bowe, Davis, Doucet, and LaFell have size, speed, durability, and are each a threat to get YAC every time they touch. AU counters with Courtney Taylor, P-Rod, Guess, Smith, and Dunn. Serviceable, yes, but other than CT they are not as scary ……. Advantage: LSU

    Overall Offense : the OL gives a slight advantage to Auburn.


    Defense
    DL - the entire SEC coaching fraternity gave a collective applause when LSU lost Williams, Wroten, and Oliver from their DL. The bad news? The backups may be just as talented. Auburn’s DL went through a similar transition, but Thompson, Gunn, Groves, Browder, and Marks sure looked solid in the opener ….. Advantage: Even (too early still to lean one way or the other)

    LB - Highsmith is a stud, Beckwith and Sanders aren’t far behind, and the freshman Cutera is making his presence known. They are big and fast, but not a ton of experience. Auburn’s strength at LB may depend on suspensions, or lack thereof. Herring is a solid leader, but with limited experience in the position. Dede played well against Wazzu, but Johnson appeared suspect against the run. His side is LSU’s “strong side.” ……. Advantage : LSU

    Secondary : LSU’s Landry is a serious baler. Along with Daniels and Jackson, this is the SEC’s strongest and deepest secondary. Auburn’s D. Irons and Wilhite offer a better tandem of CB’s, but there is virtually no depth behind them with the absence of vetern CB Pitts. AU’s safeties are it’s weakest link on D ……. Advantage: LSU

    Overall Defense : Advantage LSU.



    Special Teams

    Kicking – LSU fans will laugh, but Vaugh finally has his stuff in a pile and he’s anxious to make amends. His range and accuracy have both improved considerably since last season. He’ll prove better than Jackson/David, IMHO ……. Advantage: Auburn

    Punting - no doubt, Jackson is good, but Bliss is the SEC’s bull-in-the-woods ……. Advantage : Auburn

    Returns - while AU’s Dunn performed admirably returning punts, Davis stole the show returning kicks and he’ll be a surprise to many in the conference this season. Likewise, Trindon Holliday is a speed merchant on a mission. He’s as dangerous as any returner in the conference every time he touches the football ….. Advantage – Even

    Overall Special Teams - slight Advantage : Auburn (Bliss provides the edge)


    Intangibles

    Playmakers - LSU’s top 3 are Landry (S), Highsmith (LB), and Russell (QB). Auburn’s top 3 are Irons (RB) , Cox (QB), and Herring (LB) Advantage: Even

    Home Field – Jordan-Hare will be loud & proud. Home edge has made a difference in the series ……. slight Advantage: Auburn

    Coaching - this presents numerous subplots than a Stephen king novel, since Fisher and Muschamp know each other so well. Normally this provides a slight edge to the defense, but I dunno in this case. Miles/Pelini/Fisher versus Tuberville/Borges/Muschamp …. All veterans, all successful, all are cagey. ……. Advantage : Even.

    Depth – with still another game to be played, the depth issue and overall team health is difficult to project. The advantage may very well go to the team that can rest more starters in their week 2 game. But clearly, the suspensions of Sears and Blackmon will be felt against such a strong opponent that knows how exploit a defensive weakness. Unless Blackmon can earn his way back in time …….. Advantage : LSU


    Overall Summary Advantage - the outcome of this game, a game that WILL determine the eventual SECW champ, will very likely come down to which Quarterback can gut-out a winning drive late in the game. One or two big plays will determine the outcome for all the marbles. Can John Vaughn redeem himself? IMO, the slight edge in Special teams will prove the winning difference ………. Very slight Advantage : Auburn

    My Pick: Auburn 23-20 in overtime.

    [​IMG]
     
  2. barry6124

    barry6124 Founding Member

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    That was a damn impressive coverage of the game. I agree on all accounts. I think the outcome is too close to call, and whatever happens it will be a knock down drag out fight. And will once again be one of the best games in the nations. Geaux Tigers!
     
  3. Deceks7

    Deceks7 Founding Member

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    Caddy,

    You break it down with the best of them.
     
  4. tenebrism

    tenebrism Founding Member

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    sorry buddy, but you are DEAD wrong on the returners.

    for one, trindon can't be considered dangerous everytime he touches the ball because, well, he muffed it his only time. we aren't crap at returner right now, though we might become dangerous at some point.

    advantage clearly - auburn

    another thing i think you're wrong on is tight ends, we'll be fine at that position as far as receiving goes. it's just a matter of calling their numbers.

    running back i think is more even than anything.

    these three things really don't change much though, my pick is 23-20 as well. only for the better team... LSU.

    let's have a good game.

    :thumb:
     
  5. cadillacattack

    cadillacattack Illegitimi non carborundum est

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    well, that makes him dangerous, but for which team? :hihi: j/k

    hope it's a good, clean game :thumb:
     
  6. SabanFan

    SabanFan The voice of reason

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    Appreciate the analysis, Caddy, but in the future I'll have to insist that you pick LSU. Thanks in advance.:hihi:
     
  7. mtntiger

    mtntiger Freshman

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    Not bad, CA.

    A couple of things, though, and I see someone else beat me to one of them in a previous reply.

    1) Kick returners - even if Auburn averages minus yards on returns, it has the advantage if the return men don't turn it over. Advantage - Auburn

    2) Placekicker - Jackson gets the long ones, David gets the chip shots and Gaudet is there in case both come down with bubonic plague. Too bad Vaughan got such bad press from last year's game. One thing no one talks about is what a wicked crosswind was blowing in TS last season. LSU missed a few FG's, too, remember. Advantage - EVEN

    3) Punter - Bliss is good, but Jackson has great touch on pooch punts. I lost count of the number of times he layed balls inside the 10, much less the 20 last season. Advantage - EVEN

    This game could be decided by which team's linebackers come up with the most big plays, or the fewest blown assignments. Both teams seem talented at LB but lack experience. BTW, what do you think the chances are that the suspended LB's will see the field against LSU?

    Let's get past our respective foes this weekend and prepare for all out war next weekend.

    GEAUX TIGAHS ! ! ! ! !
     
  8. kcal

    kcal Founding Member

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    only if he gets 2 chances at the deciding extra point ;)
     
  9. houtiger

    houtiger Founding Member

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    CA,

    Great analysis! I really enjoyed it. I pretty much agree with you, I see a close game. This comes down to coaching, heart, guts, and unforseen all star plays. Who will make those all star plays.

    Based on KI, I give Auburn a slight edge at RB. I watched Kenny against WSU, and he is impressive. We'll know more after this weekend.

    I think it will be the premier game next weekend, providing we both take care of business this weekend.

    I'm looking forward to a great contest, hopefully a good clean affair on both sides. I rate it a "pick it" game. :geauxtige
     
  10. Deceks7

    Deceks7 Founding Member

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    I will talk about returners also. T. Davis is pure excitement when he returns the kickoff. Spooky speed. Auburn's punt returners have been called by some as punt catchers. I am a big Dunn fan, but he hasn't forced action on the field, YET. I haven't seen LSU returns this year, but I would give an edge to AU .
     

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