Does anyone think our BCS ranking is inflated since we don't have North Texas figured into our SOS? I'm afraid when we beat N. Texas and Appy St., our SOS will go downhill, therefore putting us below other one loss teams, since most teams schedule their "cupcakes" earlier in the season.
LSU will beat Bama late as a booster game and beat georgia in the SEC champ game. VT will be upset by miami and either USC will loose to UCLA and or Texas will loose to Texas Tech leaving LSU with plane tickets to pasadena...right?
did they put the sos back into the bcs? i thought they removed it last year.......' I know the computer polls use it, but the actual "sos" part of the bcs is history....
LSU's computer strength of schedule right now is pretty high. That will start to go down some as we add North Texas and Appl. State to the schedule, but it will be somewhat boueyed by the fact that we have played less games than all the other 1 loss teams. LSU is sitting with in most cases two less games than the other one loss teams, so I don't think the SOS hit will be as bad as it could be. Also, in Colley Matrix, the Appl. State game won't even count. They just throw out non-Div I-A games like they were never played. So it will only count against us in 5 of the computers.
SOS use to be broken out as a separate component, and made up 25% of the BCS. But SOS still remains in voters minds, and it wouldn't be too far fetched to think it's still included in the computer formulas. This why it was such a big deal for Auburn last year when Bowling Green cancelled their game, and re-scheduled w/ Oklahoma. Auburn had to replace them with The Citadel.
The separate SOS component was NOT 25% of the BCS, at least not in any meaningful way. You can't even say that the SOS component represented 25% of the components, much less 25% of the score for all teams which is implied by the statement. In 2003 there were 5 not 4 components (Avg human poll, Avg computer poll, SOS component, # losses, and QWs). The last time it was 1 of 4 was in 2000, before the addition of QW. But being 1 of 4 components doesn't necessarily mean it's 25% of your score. In the old formula the contribution was small and variable, dependent on the magnitude of the other factors. Given the way SOS was computed, each incremental schedule ranking was only worth 0.04 in your final BCS score. An incremental ranking in the average human poll was 1.0 or 25 times as important; an incremental average computer ranking was 1.0 or 25 times as important; an incremental loss was 1.0 or 25 times as important. The point is that in the old system the components weren't created equal. The SOS was in effect a small adjustment that would modify the rankings only if the non-SOS adjusted scores were pretty close together as in 2003. That year LSU and USC were essentially tied (USC had a very slight lead) until SOS was added (and we ended up with a very slight lead). The SOS difference was only 0.32 or 8 spots.
I think a +1 in the win column against North Texas will outweigh any negative SOS. Most people and computers are based highly on win and loss.
If you ADD the N Texas Win in the Colley Matrix LSU remain 12 in that poll but moves from .77689 to .78675
Undoubtedly, our SOS will take a hit b/c of those games, but every notch up the human polls counterbalances any SOS drop...at least somewhat. Don't forget that our SOS moves up this weekend, meaning in the near term the lead over Miami should widen just a bit (AU being higher ranked than Ga Tech). You'd also get a multiplier effect of sorts with a win over a top 5 Alabama--you move up in all the polls (human and computer) and your SOS goes up. That Tennessee game versus Notre Dame will help, albeit indirectly (moreso should they win, of course). What's not clear to me at this time is if it's is really better to face an undefeated Alabama on Nov. 19 or if it's better to face a one-loss, top 12 or so ranked Alabama with said loss coming to Tennessee. Vols wins over LSU, Alabama and Notre Dame would do wonders for their ranking (prob. make them the highest-ranked 2 loss team around, or close to it, at seasons end) and their SOS...a big deal should LSU find itself in an "argument" with another 1-loss for a BCS or even a Rose Bowl slot (i.e., "LSU's only loss was in OT to a 9-2 Tennessee team that also beat then-undefeated Alabama and Notre Dame...both on the road.")
This is true, and it is a point AU fans make repeatedly. What they don't mention often is that if they had smashed their last two opponents last year as OU did, they very well could have caught OU in at least one human poll, if not both. Remember, the week after the AU win over UGA, they were literally tied w/ OU. In other words, if they lay the lumber to teams when the pollsters are focused on your play---like true champions due, unless they're ranked #1 and are named USC---then AU coulda had their third AU-USC lovefest in as many seasons. I doubt this LSU team, placed in a similar situation, would fail to rise to the challenge like Auburn did in 2004.
