CFN's 2005 Capital One Bowl Preview

TejasTiger · Dec 27, 2004

What's in your wallet? For the two superstar head coaches in this game, there's a whole bunch of green in their back pockets with buckets more on the way as Iowa's Kirk Ferentz signed an extension to stick around while LSU's Nick Saban will likely be off to the Miami Dolphins in a few weeks. These two have done fantastic jobs with two of the newest members of the college football elite.

After years of being above-average, Iowa has gotten to another level with 37 wins over the last four years and is one victory away from a third straight ten-win season. This is a different team than the home-run hitting flash of 2002 and the solid all-around balance of last year, this team is getting it done with defense and sound play hampered by the nation's worst running attack and a sophomore quarterback, Drew Tate, who's still growing into the role.

After a two-game losing streak early on getting pasted 44-7 by Arizona State and 30-17 by Michigan, the Hawkeyes went on a seven-win run and a piece of the Big Ten title. There were some ugly moments along the way with a 6-4 win at Penn State and a missed Minnesota field goal in a 29-27 win, but there's no arguing with how much heart this team has and the way it's able to capitalize on any mistake.

LSU might be one of the year's more underrated teams losing 10-9 to Auburn thanks to a clutch fourth down play from Tiger QB Jason Campbell and a 45-16 blasting by Georgia. Other than that, the Tigers have played like champions despite wild inconsistency from the offense and a few too many close calls. Oregon State, Troy and Ole Miss, and Florida all came within an eyelash of beating the defending national champs, but you don't get to the level LSU is at without learning how to sidestep a few landmines.

It'll be a shock if this game is any sort of a shootout with the nation's number three (LSU) defense facing the nation's tenth best D and two offenses that are hardly precise. This should come down to turnovers and who makes the biggest defensive plays at key moments.

Players to watch: Michigan WR Braylon Edwards and Wisconsin DE Erasmus James might have had more impressive seasons, but Iowa QB Drew Tate was easily the Big Ten's most valuable player. With a rash of injuries to the Hawkeye running backs that bordered on the absurd, any offensive production had to come from Tate who threw for 2,499 yards and 18 touchdowns. Even though he's only a sophomore, he shows tremendous poise even though he still made a few rookie mistakes. Going against the nation's third best pass defense, Tate has to be out-of-this world for the Hawkeyes to win.

All eyes might be on Tate, but this is a game about defense highlighted by two of the nation's top ends: Iowa's Matt Roth and LSU's Marcus Spears. Each will be extremely rich in a few months as the NFL is all ready to snap these two up after All-America caliber campaigns. Spears would've been an early draft pick last year, but he chose to come back and be the star of the Tiger line with 48 tackles, nine sacks and 17 tackles for loss. Most importantly, he turns his game up a notch when everything is on the line.

Roth is a high-intensity, 100-mile-per-hour menace on the line and a constant terror as a pass rusher. Despite getting the full attention of every blocking scheme, he was still able to crank out eight sacks, 14 tackles for loss and eight quarterback hurries.

For LSU, the offense is all about the running game with sophomore Alley Broussard the main man. His highlight was a 250-yard day against Ole Miss and has been steady throughout the final four games of the year rushing for around 80 yards per game against Vanderbilt, Alabama and Arkansas. Known more as a power back, the 230-pound sophomore has excellent quickness and surprising speed once he gets a little bit of daylight.

Iowa will win if... its fantastic linebacking corps keeps the LSU running game from rolling. Tiger QBs Marcus Randall and JaMarcus Russell have been decent when they've had to be, and Randall was brilliant in the regular-season finale against Arkansas, but the passing game can't win on its own. LSU's offense needs to run to win, so Chad Greenway, Abdul Hodge, Jonathan Babineaux, and the rest of the Hawkeye defensive front seven must be a rock and come up with several big plays. Good field position is going to be a must.

LSU will win if... it wins the turnover battle. Iowa needs breaks to win, but it usually creates those breaks with the great play of the defense. Fourth in the nation in turnover margin and first in takeaways with 31, Iowa will be looking to force mistakes. This is an average Hawkeye team away from home that will have a hard time winning if it doesn't have at least a +2 in turnovers.
What will happen: Iowa is hard to pick against because its wins usually defy logic, but LSU is a tough draw for a team with a limited offense. The Tiger defense is every bit as good as the Iowa D, and even better in the secondary. LSU will come up with just enough offense while the defense will keep Drew Tate from performing his normal magic. It'll be a miracle if Iowa gains more than 50 yards rushing.

Line: LSU -6.5 ...

CFN Prediction: LSU 23 ... Iowa 16
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Sounds about right to me. :geaux:

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CFN's 2005 Capital One Bowl Preview

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