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(Exceprt) ESPN Insider Scout's Breakdown-LSU vs. Georgia

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by TejasTiger, Sep 30, 2004.

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TejasTiger Founding Member

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They expect a real barn burner!

When LSU has the ball
LSU run offense vs. Georgia run defense
Louisiana State offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher will take some chances downfield, but his offense is powered by the running game, and he will pound the ball between the tackles early and often. The good news for Georgia is MLB Odell Thurman will make his first appearance after serving a three-game suspension. Thurman has excellent range and is an explosive playmaker, even though he lacks prototypical bulk.

Massive NT Gerald Anderson must occupy blockers at the line of scrimmage and allow Thurman to flow to the ball without having to fight through many blocks. The problem is, Tigers OC Ben Wilkerson has the quick feet to get into position working against Anderson and the power to sustain the block. If Wilkerson can handle Anderson, the guards will be able to release up to the second level quickly, and Thurman will struggle to shed block in time to make plays.

LSU also will continue to use its depth in the backfield to its advantage. RB Justin Vincent is the starter, but backups Joseph Addai and Alley Brousard will see plenty of touches in relief. The rotation should allow the Tigers to wear the Bulldogs' front seven down over the course of the game.
Advantage: LSU

LSU pass offense vs. Georgia pass defense
There has been some speculation that QB JaMarcus Russell will replace Marcus Randall as the starter. While it's unlikely head coach Nick Saban will give the freshman Russell his first start on the road against Georgia, expect Russell to see plenty of time in relief. Russell isn't as mobile as Randall, but he is the better passer.

Look for Louisiana State to take its shots in the vertical passing game when Russell is in the game, and he should look for WR Skyler Green. Green is expected to play, despite battling an ankle injury that forced him to miss the Mississippi State game, and he has awesome speed. He should be able to get behind the Bulldogs when they bite on play-action, but both Randall and Russell must be careful. Georgia defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder runs a lot of zone coverage.

If either quarterback fails to see the safety rotating over, the result could be a costly turnover, especially since Green lacks the height to consistently compete for jump balls. In addition, Bulldogs FS Thomas Davis and SS Greg Blue play with excellent intensity and deliver some big hits. Randall and Russell must be careful not to lead their receivers too much.
Advantage: Georgia

When Georgia has the ball
Georgia run offense vs. LSU run defense
Freshman RB Danny Ware, who missed the Marshall game with a bruised lung, is expected to start. Ware had been impressive before the injury, and Georgia hopes he can pick up right where he left off, but it's unlikely.

The Tigers have yet to allow a rushing touchdown, and they are ranked first in the SEC in rushing yards allowed. Although the Bulldogs' offensive line has played relatively well, it should struggle with Louisiana State's athletic and powerful front four. With the defensive line winning the battle at the line of scrimmage, the Tigers' active linebackers should have success limiting Ware's production.

It doesn't help Georgia that Louisiana State defensive coordinator Will Muschamp will walk a safety up to the line of scrimmage if Ware is successful early. Unlike the Tigers, the Bulldogs likely will have to use the pass to open up the running game.
Advantage: LSU

Georgia pass offense vs. LSU pass defense

David Greene will under heavy pressure against LSU.
Georgia's protection has been sound, and the backs and tight ends have been a big part of that, but the Bulldogs face their toughest challenge yet. Muschamp will consistently blitz QB David Greene, and he'll do it from different areas of the field. The backs must continue to attack their blocks, and the tight ends must pick up the most dangerous blitzing defender.

Although Greene makes good decisions and gets rid of the ball quickly, he lacks the mobility to avoid the rush. One of the reasons Muschamp is so aggressive is he has corners who can hold up on islands in man coverage.

Fred Gibson is Georgia's best big-play threat at receiver and is extremely talented, but CB Corey Webster is one of the best in the country. Webster has the combination of size, speed and agility to limit Gibson's production with little-to-no safety help over the top.
Advantage: LSU

Special teams
Louisiana State's Chris Jackson and Ryan Gaudet have combined to connect on four of six field goal attempts. Jackson is responsible for the two misses, both of which came in the season opener, and he also will handle the punting duties. While Jackson lacks ideal accuracy, he has a strong leg and is capable of kicking the Tigers out of trouble.

Louisiana State has two explosive return men in KOR Joseph Addai and PR Shyrone Carey. The Tigers may also use Green to return punts, and he is extremely dangerous in the open field.

Georgia PK Andy Bailey has connected on six of his eight field goal attempts and has been automatic from inside 40 yards, but he doesn't have great range. P Gordon Ely-Kelso has shown much-improved power thus far and is extremely accurate, placing five of his 10 punts inside the 20-yard line.

While PR Tyson Browning got off to a strong start, returning a punt 72 yards for a touchdown in the season opener, he has had problems holding onto the ball. Tim Jennings and Sean Bailey have had some opportunities to return punts as a result, but don't be surprised to see Browning if the Bulldogs need a big play.
Advantage: Georgia

Bottom line
Teams that play strong defense and stay committed to the run are generally in the best position to win close games – but that only applies for teams with quarterbacks who are reliable, efficient and capable of protecting the football. While LSU has two-thirds of that winning formula down, its quarterback carousel will prevent it from pulling off the road upset.

Ware won't put up big numbers working against a stout Louisiana State run defense, but he will give the Bulldogs' offense the balance it needs to keep Saban's attacking defense at least somewhat at bay. Greene hasn't played up to expectations so far, but he typically has risen to the occasion in big games and we expect him to do the same this Saturday, especially considering how much hungrier Gibson and Brown have looked at the wide receiver position.

A few costly mistakes will become turnovers and overshadow the fact that LSU was able to wear the vaunted Bulldog defense down. In the end, experience at the quarterback position gives Georgia a huge win at home against the defending BCS national champions.

Prediction: Georgia 21, LSU 20
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TejasTiger, Sep 30, 2004

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bigbully Founding Member

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Greene hasn't played up to expectations so far, but he typically has risen to the occasion in big games and we expect him to do the same this Saturday, especially considering how much hungrier Gibson and Brown have looked at the wide receiver position.
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yeah....just like he did against us last year..... TWICE

bigbully, Sep 30, 2004

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TejasTiger Founding Member

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A pretty fair analysis, IMO. The fact that they predict only a 1 point win says it's a shaky prediction at best.

I don't think you'll see as much shuffling at QB this week, and if you do, it's bad news for LSU because it means neither QB is getting it done.

Don't know why, but I had a premonition earlier today that Joseph Addai would score the winning points. No reason to think this, just popped into my head.

Go figure.

(PS-It won't happen, but if Georgia wins this week then beats an undefeated Tennessee next week, they truly deserve to jump USC---sorry, got Pete Carroll all exicited by using the phrase 'jump USC' ---in the polls.)

TejasTiger, Sep 30, 2004

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GxLSU1 Founding Member

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bigbully said:

yeah....just like he did against us last year..... TWICE
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Exactly...

GxLSU1, Sep 30, 2004

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TejasTiger Founding Member

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BTW, they also predict an Auburn win by the score of 26-24.

TejasTiger, Sep 30, 2004

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GxLSU1 Founding Member

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Tennessee-17
Auburn-16

Tennessee wins on another long GWFG.

GxLSU1, Sep 30, 2004

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mtntiger Freshman

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Let Me Get This Straight

LSU, according to the analysis, has the advantage in most of the categories, but they still pick UGA to win.

Who are these guys? Former Congressmen?

mtntiger, Sep 30, 2004

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bigbully Founding Member

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UT's QB's look good - I think 24-10 UT

bigbully, Sep 30, 2004

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CParso Founding Member

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I like their analysis, just don't like their prediction. However, they have very little faith in our QB's and I can understand why they predict UGA to barely win. However, as a Tiger fan, I have much more faith that BOTH QB's will step up and I think this will give us the win over Georgia.

CParso, Sep 30, 2004

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LSUGradin99 I Bleedeth Purple 'N Gold

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bigbully said:

UT's QB's look good - I think 24-10 UT
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I agree with this prediction more than the others. I feel as though Aubarn will be shell-shocked by the passing game of UT.

LSUGradin99, Sep 30, 2004

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