Ran the numbers. LSU points for: [38] 154% of what teams normally allow points against: [10] 42% of what teams score GA points for: [34] 128% of what teams normally allow points against: [18] 71% of what teams normally score. running the odds ... with LSU's #s ... LSU 27-14 with GA's #s ... LSU 27-13 Looking like another double digit win for LSU.
Well .. AR has a different offense than GA. The numbers predicted last week that AR would score 17 points. .. and that is what they scored. GA has a better run game than AR, and Murry is a better QB than Wilson. But as you note, AR scores more points. AR's thorns were the LSU defense, and AR's own defense. The numbers predicted that LSU would score between 30-37 points. LSU beat that prediction thanks to TM7 punt return. GA has a better defense. Particularly a better run defense. Hence, the numbes predict that LSU should only score 27 points.
LOL ... What is this ... jump on onceanlsufan night. You guys go screw yourselves. I said .. LSU BEAT the prediction. Whether it was because of TM7's return, or JJ's TD, or because AR was gassed and gave up, or because the gods got pissed at Patrino calling CLM a MF .... they beat it. Big Whoop! If you want to get technical about it, I originally predicted that LSU would score between 30-40. I'm sure that if I did distribution analysis on the whole thing, "41" would fall within the prediction distrubution. Aside from that, there are NO PREDICTION programs out their that perform 100%. If they did, Vegas would close.
what? i was asking to understand it. wasnt criticizing it one bit. if it works one way and not the other is all i was trying to figure out.
Well I appreciate your effort, and I will be more than happy if it continues to work the rest of the year, even if we do score more than the system says we should!
