Keeler: Iowa has the edge in game's 'X' factor By SEAN KEELER REGISTER COLUMNIST Orlando, Fla. - Larry Blakeney could see it in his eyes: Nick Saban knew he had escaped, that his season had flirted gamely with a premature demise. And so the two coaches met at the midfield stripe of Tiger Stadium on Oct. 23, after Louisiana State ran the clock out on a 24-20 win over Troy, and caught their respective breaths. The heavily-favored Tigers had turned the ball over four times, including three interceptions, and trailed, 20-17, with three minutes left in the fourth quarter. "He was very complimentary about our kids," recalled Blakeney, the Trojans' coach. "We had them on the ropes and let them off. I think they were just relieved that it was over." Saban has worn that look to a postgame handshake more than once this fall. LSU has given the ball up a whopping 24 times, more than twice a game, last in the Southeastern Conference. The Tigers posted a minus-3 turnover margin, 79th in Division I-A. Nine of their giveaways, 38 percent, have resulted in touchdowns for the opponent. Of the 66 points scored by Florida and Georgia against the Tiger defense, 28 - or 42 percent - came after a takeaway. If you're looking for an "X" factor for Saturday's Capital One Bowl, brother, this is it. What the Tigers want to - tend to - give, Iowa will gladly take. The Hawkeyes come to Orlando ranked fourth in the NCAA in turnover margin (plus-1.27 per game). Iowa has scored 88 points, 34 percent of its cumulative 262, off of 31 opponent turnovers and two blocked punts. In wins over Purdue, Minnesota and Wisconsin, turnovers directly accounted for 43 percent (35 of 82) of the Hawkeyes' scoring. "Turnovers are going to be the key to this game," said Terry Bowden, the former Auburn coach and ABC analyst who also hosts an afternoon radio show on Orlando's ESPN affiliate. "I think the defenses are going to be the best sides of both teams out there. When that happens, (takeaways) are going to be the difference between the two." Just as injuries forced Iowa to abandon its running game in midseason, ineffectiveness drove Saban to scrap the pro-style passing game that had propelled the Tigers to a co-national championship in 2003. In its first seven games, LSU averaged 155 rushing yards and turned the ball over 19 times. In its last four games, LSU averaged 280 on the ground while committing just five turnovers. "We made too many mistakes in the passing game to be an efficient passing team," Saban explained. But Troy was the turning point. LSU had invited the Trojans to Homecoming at Baton Rouge; a nice paycheck, the kind that'll keep your softball team in cleats through 2012, in exchange for a quick and easy clubbing. Only it turned out to be neither. LSU held Troy to 150 total yards of offense and turned away 11 of 14 third-down attempts. And yet the Trojans had taken a 20-17 lead on a short field goal with 3:59 left in the fourth quarter. Did we mention this was Homecoming? And that LSU was ranked 18th at time? The Trojans are a nice team, a bowl team even, but they had no business hanging with the Bayou Bengals in their own backyard. "We were able to stop the rush early. We were able to give them troubles running the football," Blakeney explained. "We did a good job throwing the ball in the middle. Our kicking game helped us a little bit. But we had three short fields, while we didn't turn it over. That was the biggest thing." Troy scored 17 of its 20 points off Tiger giveaways. The Trojans had to go just 20 yards for their first touchdown and just two yards for their second, which knotted the score at 17-17. "When you play a team as talented as LSU," Blakeney said, "you hope they can help you a little bit." 'Tis the season. When you're trying to find cracks in Division I-A's No. 3 defense, there's no greater gift than a short field.
