LSU's Rosy Scenario

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by BB, Aug 23, 2005.

  1. BB

    BB Founding Member

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    I can't believe my eyes - this guy actually gets it. I look for him to be kidnapped by the media mafia and never found...

    By: Matthew Zemek
    August 23, 2005

    At this time of year, it’s always fun to try to look for the inevitable surprises that’ll occur in the upcoming season. I have to admit, I’ve had a hard time coming up with them.

    Purdue’s a trendy pick as a (positive) surprise. I’m not sold on them.

    Pittsburgh is another hot pick. Nope. Let’s remember the (non-) quality of the league they won (and in a tie with three other teams, including so-so Syracuse) last year.

    Arizona State? They beat Purdue in the Sun Bowl, and because I’m not sold on Purdue, I can’t be too worked up about the Sun Devils. Sam Keller can only throw so many screen passes in 2005.

    Oregon? They could have a big year if they beat USC in September to gain a massive mountain of confidence. But as the saying goes, “if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we’d all have a very merry Christmas.”

    Alabama? Tempting, very tempting, but I’m not sold on the receiving corps, and the thick cloud of pressure surrounding Mike Shula (why should it be so smothering—didn’t the guy inherit an unholy mess of a program?) might handcuff the program yet another year.

    Yeah, I’m struggling to find good surprise candidates, folks—not in any locale around the country (with the exception of Wyoming, a team I have touted)—so I’m going with nuanced surprises among the elite teams.

    So here are two little surprises: USC will have to make sure it doesn't play tight, and LSU will be very, very good and won't have much to show for it.

    This isn't meant as any kind of attempt to maintain a continuing set of talking points or nurse an emotional grudge with respect to the still-controversial 2003 national championship race between the two teams, which is still fresh (oh, very, very fresh) in the collective memories of Trojan and Tiger fans.

    So, in the interests of objectivity, let’s consider one remotely important factor that suggests why USC is in the catbird seat, and LSU fans should give Les Miles wiggle room by not expecting much more than the SEC West: the schedule.

    You know, the schedule, as in the teams you play in your eleven choice games? It’s just a tiny little factor in a college football season.

    Last November—right after the deafening Iron Bowl—I remarked just how loud and proud SEC stadiums were, and that the volume from Tuscaloosa on Iron Bowl Afternoon shook my TV set at home. One reader from Ohio protested, saying that the audio on ABC’s broadcast feeds did a disservice to Michigan-Ohio State and other Big Ten games, whereas CBS’ audio feeds regularly seem to absorb the full intensity of SEC broadcasts, which are televised on Black Rock in addition to ESPN and the Deuce. But protests aside, I’d still find it hard to argue that other conferences, top to bottom, can match the noise and intimidation factors of SEC stadiums. When you exclude Kentucky and Vandy, and for now, Mississippi State, you still have nine locales where it’s just not easy to win. Texas, for example, was one Matt Jones blunder away from losing to Arkansas in Fayetteville last September. Put that same Texas team in the stadium of a middle-division team in any other conference, and they likely win comfortably. Not in the SEC.

    The point I made last November is a point I’d stand by today: winning a night game in Tuscaloosa or Athens carries more value than a win in places such as Tempe, Lincoln (in a big change from the old days), West Lafayette, Morgantown, Raleigh, or Provo. Winning a game in Knoxville or Baton Rouge carries more value than a win in College Station (at least for now; Dennis Franchione might change that equation this season), Berkeley, Ann Arbor, Louisville, Salt Lake, or Boise.

    Yes, I would love to see SEC teams schedule more heavyweights in non-conference play. In a conference that prides itself on manliness and glorified gridiron grit, it’s a shame that the big boys don’t challenge more powers in other leagues. I won’t deny the force or merits of this point.

    But once you do get into conference play—which, last time I checked, still does account for 72 percent of a team’s regular season—the SEC is murder, and that’s why its teams go light in the non-conference realm.

    There’s a legitimate reason for thinking USC will coast this year while LSU battles mightily: USC’s schedule is cake—soft, spongy, moist, unresistant and melt-in-your-mouth delicious. The Trojans will eat... it... up. Only Oregon poses a scenario that grabs your attention and makes you say, “Hmmm... they really could get ambushed there...” Tempe’s too relaxed, Cal’s too impotent (at least going into the season), and Notre Dame isn’t what Notre Dame used to be. To think that Brady Quinn can even stand on the same field as Matt Leinart is ludicrous—the Irish must hold the ball for 50 minutes if they even want a remote chance of winning. That covers USC’s remotely tough road games; no one will breathe on them in LA. Arkansas without Matt Jones? Fresno State in November (they always fold up the tents late; put that game early in the season, and you might have an interesting tilt)? Next.

    As for LSU, it’s another story. For starters, there’s a decent Arizona State team the Tigers are courageous enough to play, and then there’s these other teams you might have heard of: Tennessee, Florida, Auburn and Alabama. Yes, Three of those games are at home, but the Vols and Gators figure to be pretty formidable before the season’s done. Auburn’s defense will make a matchup of the past two SEC West champs in a competitive game, and negotiating Tuscaloosa late in the season will be a daunting task.

    So in saying that USC has a much easier road to glory than LSU, it’s not a knock on the Tigers—they actually play tough teams. USC would lose a game with LSU’s schedule, and LSU would face the same one pothole—Oregon—if given USC’s schedule. So Tiger fans should really lighten up in all this. USC’s set up for a much better year.

    The ironic thing about LSU fans viewing a multi-loss, non-SEC championship season as a disappointment is this: by thinking their team should roll through its schedule, LSU fans are essentially conceding the whole strength of schedule argument to the Pac-10 and the likes of USC. If the good people of Cajun Country were truly smart and savvy in viewing their football team and the road that lies ahead, they’d be cautious in heaping preseason praise upon their boys. Think about it: doesn’t it make sense to view your schedule as imposing, not easy, so that if your team does happen to prove itself good enough to run the table, you not only have an unbeaten slate, but can point to a strong schedule that could lift you into the Rose Bowl over a 12-0 Texas team (hypothetically) when the BCS day of reckoning arrives in early December.

    In the end, LSU fans need to be balanced and not have it both ways: either their team is awesome while its schedule stinks, or the Tigers are fairly good but up against a formidable slate. And as for LSU fans’ view of USC, the same balanced perspective should emerge: if the Pac-10 is as weak as SEC fans think it is, then USC will wipe it off the board without a sweat; conversely, though, USC figures to struggle this year only if you view the Pac as a league to be taken seriously.

    LSU will struggle a lot more than USC, but only because the Tigers are actually playing some people. Yes, that’s meant as a compliment to the Tigers and their conference. But if Tiger fans insist that their team shouldn’t break a sweat, let’s not be hearing about strength of schedule come the first weekend of December. You can’t have it both ways in a world that, believe it or not, has fewer conspiratorial football writers than you might think exist.
     
  2. NoLimitMD

    NoLimitMD Founding Member

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    Sticky on this article anyone?
     
  3. Golden Tiger

    Golden Tiger Founding Member

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    Hammer.....Nail......Head.............

    Great read,............. :geauxtige
     
  4. Indiana Tiger

    Indiana Tiger Founding Member

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    Yes, but it's amazing how many people gets that he's got it, but don't get what's he's got:
     
  5. goldengirlfan

    goldengirlfan simple man

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    Nominate this guy for a Scrappy award. :lol:
     
  6. Golden Tiger

    Golden Tiger Founding Member

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    It's easy to agree with what this guy wrote, for LSU to go undefeated would
    be a huge task. Sure I think LSU has a great team, but we also play 5 great teams and several very good teams. It should not be an insult to LSU or us fans for someone to say Tenn.Fla. ect... are good to great teams and that we just won't walk over such teams. It's easy to see a team like USC will have a much better chance to win all their games and be in the Rose Bowl, it
    is a fact that when playing much harder teams your chances of a loss increase. I for one hope for the best and think LSU has a chance to play in the Rose Bowl, it just won't be easy.

    :geauxtige
     
  7. kcal

    kcal Founding Member

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    DITTO!
     
  8. bubbafong

    bubbafong Founding Member

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    DITTO!
     
  9. locoguano

    locoguano Founding Member

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  10. LSUGradin99

    LSUGradin99 I Bleedeth Purple 'N Gold

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