Please!!! "USC begins tough part of schedule" http://www.sportsline.com/collegefootball/story/10359409 USC starting the tough part of their schedule. I don't see a tough part in their schedule. Petey "Horsehead" Carroll talks up how strong the Pac-10 is. Here is a list of currently ranked opponents that LSU and USC play. LSU schedule of ranked opponents (Current rankings) #17 Vtech in week 2 #12 S. Carolina this week #3 Florida in week 6 #21 Kentucky in week 7 #16 Alabama in week 10 USC's schedule of ranked opponents #24 Nebraska in week 3 #13 Oregon in week 9 #6 California in week 11 So USC's schedule gets tough now or in week 9? Why not write an article about the "Tough" SEC? How it is very unlikely for a team to go undefeated, or how many teams in the SEC are ranked. I'm just sick of so many articles being written about the USC and we can't even get rid of ND articles. They are freaking 0-3 and we still get ESPN and CBS plastering pics and articles on their front pages. The only thing brought up in the SEC this week is how UGA practices behind closed doors because he's afraid of Nick Saban and the potential of cheating in the SEC. Sorry for venting but I really shouldn't let this upset me. It is nothing new from the media.
You have every right to vent as does Florida both of whom have a helluva lot tougher schedules than USC, the bias is to much to overcome at times. It's to bad the SEC can't do something to counter balance that bias. I guess it's gonna take tearing the SEC apart and re organizing into different conferences with a buncha programs that think a 3rd down conversion is something to rush the field over. it's unfortunate that the SEC has to tkae care of the problem with undefeated and top ranked teams by making them play each other.
The only reason they write this crap is because we fuss about it.. I'm sick of seeing it too (especially after this past weekend). They beat a Nebraska team that barely survived Wake Forest.. and articles get written titled "USC is the REAL #1", etc... rubbish. Let's wait and see what they're ranked after the last down of the NCG is played...
Who cares? They take care of business and we take care of business then we have the match-up everyone wants and it is settled on the field.
Exactly, lets just stay focused and play our best. If we do that, I am, for the first time really, convinced that we can beat anyone in the country with ease. We now have a great (not just solid or gets the job done) offense to match our great defense. All we can do is make sure we dont play flat from here on out and were gravy.
I have a pretty simple model to calculate probability of stay unbeaten (difficulty of schedule). When two ranked teams play each other, the probability of higher ranked team winning the game increases by 2% for the number of ranking difference above the 50% chance of wining the game. For example, when #1 and #2 teams play each other, the probability of #1 team win is 52%, while the #2 team win is 48%. If #1 plays #25, the probability #1 team win is (2% x 24+ 50%) = 98%. If #2 plays #10, the #2 wins #10 is 50%+2%x8=66%. Now lets calculate the probability of wining all games of ranked teams by LSU and USC: LSU schedule of ranked opponents (Current rankings) #17 Vtech in week 2 ==>0.5+0.02x15=0.80 #12 S. Carolina this week==> 0.5+0.02x10=0.70 #3 Florida in week 6==>0.5+0.02x1=0.52 #21 Kentucky in week 7==>0.5+0.02x19=0.88 #16 Alabama in week 10==>0.5+0.02X14=0.78 LSU Total = 0.80x0.70x0.52x0.88x0.78=0.20 USC's schedule of ranked opponents #24 Nebraska in week 3==>0.5+0.02x23=0.96 #13 Oregon in week 9==>0.5+0.02x12=0.74 #6 California in week 11==>0.5+0.02x5=0.6 USC total = 0.96x0.74x0.60=0.426 USC/LSU=0.426/0.2=2.13 Therefore, USC has more than twice the chance of wining all the games than LSU. In other words, it is more than twice as diffuculty for LSU to win all than USC. This results should tell who has more difficult tasks. I know this model is a little too simple because: 1) teams below #25 has 0% to beat #1 team. 2) It has not taken home field advantage into consideration. However, this can be tweaked by a professional statistician to get more accurate wining percentage of ranked teams play each other. But the calculation is by far much accurate than guess work, and should be in the ball park number.
Sagarin says the Pac it THE toughest conference. What up?? http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbc07.htm
