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News Alert.....Read this....Our SOS projections have improved

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by islstl, Dec 1, 2003.

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islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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In my posting of LSU vs. USC for #2 in the BCS.....I have been using Rich Tellshow's SOS projections.

He just posted an addendum to his web page stating that he made a mistake in the computations affectiing LSU directly.

He figured in that the Georgia record would be 10-2 for our SOS, when in fact, it is 10-1. BCS rules say LSU's previous victory over UGA does not get counted when it plays UGA again. In other words, GA is 10-1 against all other opponents other than LSU. That is what is applied to our SOS. In fact he applied 10-2 for both games, yielding 20-4, instead of what it should be 20-2.

The difference is significant enough that I will have to change the scenarios I came up with. This now allows a little more leeway in what has to happen in order for LSU to get to #2 in the BCS.

I should have the thread "LSU vs. USC for #2...." updated within the hour.

islstl, Dec 1, 2003

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Soap Founding Member

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So it's a little closer than we think, if we win.

Soap, Dec 1, 2003

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islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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It now appears that we can possibly afford Syracuse to lose. I will post it very soon. Check back.

islstl, Dec 1, 2003

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LSUfan Founding Member

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That is some good news. Atleast playing and beating #5 Georgia won't really hurt our chances, as much as I thought earlier.

LSUfan, Dec 1, 2003

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islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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In fact, it's almost a wash. We gained a 9-1 record vs. an 8-3 Florida record. It's about 0.16 decrease to our SOS. And if Georgia is still #10 after its loss to LSU which it will be, we only lose 0.30 in the QW (from -.40 to -.10). Total net loss, 0.14.....not nearly as bad.

islstl, Dec 1, 2003

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TejasTiger Founding Member

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Rich's site is good, but he's not the best at describing his figures so you have to do a little inspection to draw all viable conclusions from his projections.

Looks like we can indeed afford a Syracuse loss after all, but NOT BOTH a Syracuse loss AND a Bowling Green loss (BG is 10-0 at home this year and guess where Thurs's MAC Title Game is held.)

Here's his projected breakdown:

Winners USC LSU Comments
(#1)M.OH, ND, BSU 1.32 1.28 Projected SOS (GOOD USC)
(#2)BG, Syr, BSU 1.44 1.20 (GOOD LSU)
(#3) M.OH,Syr, BSU 1.44 1.24 (GOOD LSU)
(#4)BG, Syr, Haw 1.28 1.20 (GOOD LSU)
(#5)BG, ND, BSU 1.32 1.24 (GOOD LSU)
(#6)M.OH,Syr, Haw 1.32 1.24 (GOOD LSU)
(#7)BG, ND, Haw 1.16 1.28 (GOOD USC)
(#8)M.OH, ND, Haw 1.16 1.32 (USC's best outcome)

His current projection forsees the following: Miami (OH), Notre Dame and Boise State win, UGA gives LSU .1 QW point...and LSU loses to USC by .4 pts.

Therefore, LSU has slightly favorable to favorable outcomes in 5 of the 8 above scenarios because that .7 point spread shown above in scenarios #5 and#6 result in (essentially) A TIE.

Tiebreaker goes to LSU, by the way, because of the #2 BCS tiebreaker of win over highest rated BCS team (Georgia over Wash. St., easy).

Also, looks like Georgia will easily be BCS #10 even with a loss since that spread between them and Miami (OH) is a comfortable one.

In other words, for the second week in a row, it looks like the prognosticators jumped the gun again in proclaiming LSU's Sugar Bowl hopes dead.

We live on.

,

TejasTiger, Dec 1, 2003

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islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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You are right about the tie going to LSU, but where do you get that there is even a tie, since scenarios 4, 5 and 6 give LSU a .01 advantage?

It's just a damn shame that the #1 scenario did not yield a .08 advantage to LSU, then we would be in the driver's seat.

Basically, in a nutshell, if Bowling Green wins Thursday, then LSU need only Syracuse OR Boise State to win, and we would be looking that much better. If Bowling Green loses, then we only need Syracuse to win.

Wow, what a tangled web we weave!

islstl, Dec 1, 2003

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TejasTiger Founding Member

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More analysis:

Now that we have had a look at the computers this week, let's address the question of whether or not LSU can get the support it needs in the geek department to get by Southern Cal.
Of course, it remains to be seen just how much support they need. LSU currently trails in four of the computers, but we know that if Syracuse beats Notre Dame, they will finish second in Colley. We know that the ND-Syracuse game will determine which team leads in Colley. The conditions look favorable for the Tigers in Billingsley also, but that will be close. Since the NY Times rates most recent performances more heavily (too much so, IMO), it seems reasonable to think that LSU could pass USC in that computer too, even though they are currently fifth. Perhaps I should not use the term "reasonable" when trying to predict the NY Times rankings. The sticking point might be Peter Wolfe's rankings. LSU trails by 0.085, which in his rankings, is a pretty healthy margin. It is about half of what LSU trailed USC by last week, but USC did not play. However, the difference in the strength of this week's opponents of USC and LSU leads me to believe LSU may still have a shot. I suspect some SOS games may have to go the Tigers' way as well.

Another thing to keep in mind is that one of LSU's opponents plays this week too. That opponent is Western Illinois, which faces Colgate in the Division I-AA playoffs. I-AA playoff games do not count in the BCS SOS, but for the computers that rate I-AA teams (Massey, Sagarin, Wolfe), the Leathernecks are part of the equation. It looks like the NY Times counts WIU's full record as part of LSU's SOS, though it is not known how much it is weighed (and there is nobody to ask). Anderson-Hester and Billingsley each have a generic way of treating games against foes outside of I-A, and it those opponents are not treated as good opponents. Colley simply ignores all games outside of Division I-A, win or lose, much like the RPI in basketball.
Click to expand...

TejasTiger, Dec 1, 2003

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TundraTiger Founding Member

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But if Miami of Ohio wins, they pass USC in 2 CPU Polls!

So Miami/Bolling Green is a win/win for LSU.

TundraTiger, Dec 1, 2003

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TejasTiger Founding Member

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"Essentially" a tie assuming slight variance between Tellshow's projections and the actual calculations.

If he projects something to within 1/10th of a point, I figure we might as well be aware of the tiebreakers involved just in case.

Miami (Oh) looks real good, but then again Bowling Green is great at home. BG has a far better shot at winning than does a Syracuse team that, from what I've read today, has up and quit this season.

TejasTiger, Dec 1, 2003

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