Run for the Roses: (Un) Official "Expert BCS Talk/Discussion" Thread (Wk of 11/20/05)

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by TejasTiger, Nov 20, 2005.

Page 1 of 3
  1. TejasTiger

    TejasTiger Founding Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2003
    Messages:
    3,184
    Likes Received:
    49
    Now that LSU is essentially the highest-rated 1-loss with the two teams above them still having games to play, I'd like to create a clearinghouse for all things BCS and Rose Bowl-related---links to informative articles, emails to guys like Jerry Palm and our old friend from 2003 Rick Tellshow, etc.

    I think it would be neat to have as much justification as we BCS sleuths can uncover for saying things like "LSU will pass Penn St if they win out."

    My semi-educated guess: boosts in computer rankings plus opening up some space in the human polls (LSU has two games left/one against ranked opp. to open up a lead on PSU whereas Va. Tech has two games left/one against ranked opp. to possibly catch PSU) should get the Tigers over that particular hump.

    Also, I'm a bit concerned about Texas losing to A&M, beating Colorado and still passing LSU . Reason why is Texas is so damn strong in the computers that a loss followed by a win over Colorado may keep them close enough to LSU in the human polls to cause trouble.

    In the immortal words of Reverend Jesse himself, "KEEP HOPE A-LIVE!!"
    LSU! :crystal: :lsup:
     
    TejasTiger, Nov 20, 2005
    #1
  2. TejasTiger

    TejasTiger Founding Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2003
    Messages:
    3,184
    Likes Received:
    49
    TejasTiger, Nov 20, 2005
    #2
  3. locoguano

    locoguano Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2004
    Messages:
    10,342
    Likes Received:
    2,216
    Re: Run for the Roses: (Un) Official "Expert BCS Talk/Discussion" Thread (Wk of 11/20

    Face it.. there is no chance... A win at Ark. will actually drop us further in the computers, neutralizing any gain from UGA. No way we pass a 1 loss UT or USC...
     
    locoguano, Nov 20, 2005
    #3
  4. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2003
    Messages:
    46,115
    Likes Received:
    9,705
    Re: Run for the Roses: (Un) Official "Expert BCS Talk/Discussion" Thread (Wk of 11/20

    I think much like in 2003, a lot of things have to go right for the Tigers to overtake Penn State.

    For instance, Florida MUST beat FSU this week. No doubt about it.

    I will post every meaningful game these next 2 weeks and the ramifications for both LSU and Penn State, probably tomorrow.

    It's going to be tough and tight, no doubt, very much the same way we BARELY passed USC for 2nd in the BCS that fateful Saturday nite/Sunday morning back in December of 03.
     
    islstl, Nov 20, 2005
    #4
  5. jjfl

    jjfl Founding Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2003
    Messages:
    334
    Likes Received:
    0
    Re: Run for the Roses: (Un) Official "Expert BCS Talk/Discussion" Thread (Wk of 11/20


    I assume Georgia beating Ga Tech is a must as well?
     
    jjfl, Nov 20, 2005
    #5
  6. TejasTiger

    TejasTiger Founding Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2003
    Messages:
    3,184
    Likes Received:
    49
    Re: Run for the Roses: (Un) Official "Expert BCS Talk/Discussion" Thread (Wk of 11/20

    Wow, what an ignorant statement.

    The current BCS is heavily weighted towards the human polls (66%). Given the fact that Miami fell 7 spots this week, a similar drop by a 1-loss Texas or USC would go a long, long way in erasing any sort of computer poll gap b/w a 1-loss LSU and a 1-loss UT or USC.
     
    TejasTiger, Nov 20, 2005
    #6
  7. TejasTiger

    TejasTiger Founding Member

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2003
    Messages:
    3,184
    Likes Received:
    49
    Re: Run for the Roses: (Un) Official "Expert BCS Talk/Discussion" Thread (Wk of 11/20

    Yeah, I think it's safe to say we want both Florida and Georgia to win.

    Here's a detailed question I'd like to see addressed in this thread: "static" versus "dynamic" opponents.

    LSU opponents="dynamic" but w/ likely wins in games left (EDIT: sorry, N. Tx still has Arky St left at home this Sat. and ASU has Arizona. Both are at home, though.)

    Penn St opponent (S Fla)="dynamic" but w/ likely 1/possible 2 losses in games left

    IOW, we've all bemoaned how much N. Texas hurts from a SOS standpoint since they kept losing (and losing, and losing) all year long.

    Well, the losing has now stopped, as all of the teams that were pulling LSU down with crappy records are all done for the season...whereas "good" teams like Florida and Georgia still have games to go in which they will be favored. Heck, a Georgia win over Ga Tech is more valuable after last night's upset.

    SOS ratings were being pulled in two directions every week...until now. A Florida win and a Georgia win exerts 100% "positive" pressure on our SOS vis a vis the computers, with a likely South Florida loss to W Va (heck, possibly two more losses by S. Florida since they still have a U Conn team coming off a bye and with a 3-1 record at home to go, too) helping out as well.
     
    TejasTiger, Nov 20, 2005
    #7
  8. gumborue

    gumborue Throwin Ched

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2003
    Messages:
    10,839
    Likes Received:
    577
    Re: Run for the Roses: (Un) Official "Expert BCS Talk/Discussion" Thread (Wk of 11/20

    yep. especially if Tx loses to TAM they will drop far enough in the human polls to counter any high ranking by the computers. the same thing cant be said for USC losing to UCLA or Tx losing to CO

    LSU needs beat Ark easily, have UGA beat GT and then look good against UGA. cant win 10-13 or have UGA miss 3 FGs. maybe then LSU will pass Penn St.
     
    gumborue, Nov 21, 2005
    #8
  9. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2003
    Messages:
    46,115
    Likes Received:
    9,705
    Re: Run for the Roses: (Un) Official "Expert BCS Talk/Discussion" Thread (Wk of 11/20

    exactly right on UT.....they aren't loved anywhere near the likes of USC by the voters, so they would fall too far down to even have a chance at the #2 spot in the BCS

    USC is a different story, a close loss to UCLA and they may only fall to the #2 spot in the human polls....

    Georgia and Florida are MUST wins, that is quite apparent

    Other teams we are still concerned with are Oregon, Ohio State, Vtech, who are still ahead of us in many of the computer polls, so even their SOS is important at this point

    Florida losing to South Carolina really sucked for us....and Tennessee and Arizona State's crappy seasons have also killed us.
     
    islstl, Nov 21, 2005
    #9
  10. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2003
    Messages:
    46,115
    Likes Received:
    9,705
    Re: Run for the Roses: (Un) Official "Expert BCS Talk/Discussion" Thread (Wk of 11/20

    Projected best finishes for LSU in the computer Polls:

    ...........Sagarin...A&H..Bill...Colley...KM....Wolfe
    PSU....... 3.........3......5.......3.......3.........3......= 91 %
    LSU....... 6.........5......3.......4.......5 ........6......= 85 %

    In Colley, I projected LSU to win over WVU, to mimick where Georgia would be in their matrix after a win over GTech......it's going to be so close for 5th place with VTech...coin flip

    This is too close to call, but with the Harris poll having closed the gap of our lead over Penn State by over half, I think the nod goes to Penn State to stay ahead of us in the BCS

    Put it this way, if Georgia loses to GTech, there is no way for LSU to pass Penn State in the BCS (see Caveat below)

    I think it comes down to this: North Carolina must beat Vtech this coming weekend in order for LSU to surpass Penn State in the BCS.....Vtech is wedged between Penn State and LSU in almost every computer poll.

    So the order of significance this weekend is:

    1 NC over VTech (yes even more significant than Georgia winning)
    2 GA over GTech
    3 Florida over FSU
     
    islstl, Nov 21, 2005
    #10
Page 1 of 3

Share This Page