Trends since Nov. 5th and what they may reveal about Jan. 9th

After LSU demolished yet another ranked opponent in the SECCG, I couldn't help but think that the Tigers had improved vastly ever since the showdown in Tuscaloosa. After the 1st half in the WKy game, they just seemed to spring forward and never look back through the end of the season; hitting a second stride, so to speak.

On the other hand, bama seemed to essentially maintain the status quo, and perhaps even slipped a little. Certainly not a bad thing for a team of their caliber, but they didn't quite seem to end the season with the same momentum.

So I decided to do a little research in order to determine whether this was a legitimate observation, or merely the influence of the recency effect. I realize that statistics can often be misleading, but I think that these tell the true story of how these two teams have fared since then. Keep in mind that UGA has the 3rd overall defense in the country. Showing the statistics that don't include that game actually reveals a more fair comparison of the schedules since then.

Since Nov. 5th, LSU has averaged 284 rushing ypg, and 6.7 ypc. Not including the UGA game, 310ypg, 6.8ypc. bama has averaged 236 rushing ypg, and 5.5ypc.

Average final score: LSU 44-10; bama 37-14

Punt returns: LSU 352yds total, 22ypa; bama 46yds total, 9ypa

Turnovers Forced: LSU 11, bama 3

What this tells me is that there are three phases of the game where LSU has significantly outperformed bama since Nov. 5th. Add to that, LSU has done it against much stiffer competition. Our weakest opponent was Ole Miss. bama's was an AA team, who ran for 300+ yds and scored 21pts. LSU has also played WKy, Arky, and Georgia, while bama played Moo U and Auburn. To be fair, bama does have 50ypg advantage in passing, but AJ was ineffective against our secondary when not hitting TR in the flats/screen.

This gives me a lot of confidence heading into the NCG. It seems to me that the Tigers came out of Tuscaloosa a much better football team. They had played very confidently all year long. But after making it out of there alive, they really seemed to take it to another level. The running game has been literally unstoppable. We're averaging 6.7 yards every time we run the ball, and this includes going up against one of the best rush D's in the country. I think that the multi-faceted rushing attack can wear down any defense, including bama.

Another big contributing factor to the recent performances has been the play of #7. The first time we played bama, he was a non-factor to anyone not named Dre Kirkpatrick. He was on the heels of the suspension, and hadn't played in over two weeks. He has since re-asserted his playmaking capabilities, and is playing better than ever. He's found his zone and will find a way to make an impact on this game.

We also know that Les Miles and Jordan Jefferson are at their best when they've got extra time to prepare, so we always have that to fall back on.

One thing that I do hope changes for the rematch is the offensive game plan at the beginning of the game. Early on against Arky and UGA, Kragdrawa seemed to be very pass-happy, which I don't think is a good approach with JJ. He seems to have a need to settle in and hand it off a few times and maybe run it once or thrice before he's totally comfortable in the pocket. I think if we do that and let him throw on the roll-out, he can be good enough to provide the threat of the pass. We just can't make establishing that threat a priority. Opportunities will be few, and every drive will be important.

:LSU231: GEAUX!!!!:LSU231:

 

Good write-up, thanks.

 

i agree. excellent post.

makes me wonder what the factors are for the other team, and how those will weigh against what cc posted.

 

thanks

forward that to ESPN please

LOL it's a Tiger thing to know what is going on and not up to ESPN

 

Nah. They don't deserve to know the truth. It can be our little secret.

 

My biggest hope is that they call more slants and plays that utilize our receivers in stride. Bama closes too fast.

I also think we should have spurts of no-huddle after we have a big gain. Stop allowing the Bama defense to make audibles and player substitutions. I dont think Bama is quite as conditioned as LSU and could help wear them down.

 

Great post. Thanks for sharing!

 

I have been saying that for a few weeks now ...Just good to see stats that actually back it up....great work!

Some people do not want to hear this but LSU's offense is better with Jefferson. He came in the bama game without much gametime speed plays previously, i really think the game has slowed down for jefferson since then and it's a reason lsu's offense has been better. No doubt I have much love and respect for Lee, we would not be undefeated if it were not for Jared lee, but right now jefferson gives us the best chance to win a bcs championship and not an ap championship.

 

+1. Thoughtful post.

 

nice post....very informative. I feel like this team has a quite confidence about them and while I think the game will still be close I look for the Tigers to win definitively.