you have a poor memory. everyone knew lsu had a decent shot because of how they played at UConn. and this years team is deeper with martin and qt. 06 only had lazare as meaningful bench player.
Butler's big wins this year came against: Xavier @ Xavier who beat us and Cleveland State twice, but then lost to them in their conference championship game. They lost to Ohio State. here are the yearly statistics for Butler http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/ranksummary the one thing that jumps out to me is their scoring defense is ranked 6th.
Anything is possible, somethings just aren't probable. Unfortunately, I think this is going to be a short dance for us. Its better than not going at all or going to the NIT.