Probably unlikely, but assume USC and Texas lose on Saturday. That would leave a field of 9 one-loss teams, most trying to make their case for the big game. Here's how the beauty contest shapes up. #1 USC Beat #7 Notre Dame 34-31 Beat #8 Oregon 45-13 Lost to #11 UCLA (assumed) Beat #23 Fresno State 50-42 #2 Texas Beat #6 Ohio State 25-22 Beat #18 Texas Tech 52-17 Lost to unranked Colorado (assumed) #3 LSU Beat #9 Auburn 20-17 Beat #13 Georgia (assumed) Beat #14 Alabama 16-13 Beat #17 Florida 21-17 Lost to unranked Tennessee 30-27 #4 Penn State Beat #6 Ohio State 17-10 Lost to #20 Michigan 27-25 Beat #21 Wisconsin 35-14 #5 Virginia Tech Lost to #10 Miami 27-7 Beat #12 West Virginia 34-17 Beat #19 Boston College 30-10 Beat #24 Georgia Tech 51-7 Beat unranked Florida State (assumed) #8 Oregon Lost to #1 USC 53-13 Beat #23 Fresno State 37-34 #11 UCLA Beat #1 USC (assumed) Lost to unranked Arizona 52-14 #12 West Virginia Lost to #5 Virginia Tech 34-17 #15 TCU Lost to unranked SMU 21-10 Dismiss West Virginia and TCU with no wins over Top 25 teams.:nope: Dismiss UCLA. The loss at Arizona was too ugly for win over USC to overcome.:nope: Dismiss Oregon. Only win over a Top 25 team was vs. Fresno State. Totally dominated by USC, their only other Top 25 opponent.:nope: Dismiss Virginia Tech. Three wins vs. Top 25 teams not enough to overcome lone loss to Miami which was ugly and more recent than LSU's September 26 Katrina loss and Penn State's October 15 last play, on the road loss to #20 Michigan.:nope: Dismiss Texas. Lose to an unranked opponent and Mack can't posture and politic his way into the Rose Bowl again. :nope: And now there are 3. USC, Penn State, and LSU. No matter the 30+ game win streak and current and next Heisman winners to hype the game, no roses for the Trojans. Lose late and you're outta here. :nope: LSU gets the Katrina sympathy vote and won't be penalized for one bad half of an early-season football game. Besides, the voters don't want to talk about that very much as it resurfaces how wrong they were about the rockytopcoondog team that was preseason Top 5. Penn State gets the respect-your-elders, warm and fuzzy JoPa vote. There you have it. The mighty Bengals of the Bayou and those Pennsylvania wickerbills in the Sears Roebuck uniforms. Have at it.:grin:
Was listening to Sports Gumbo this morning and they said that never has the #1 ranked team in the BCS ever fallen out of that spot in the last week of the season. OU in 2003 was #1 and they lost their last game, and they stayed #1. I hope USC loses to UCLA and falls out of the top spot, but I don't think the computers will drop them much.
You forgot Notre Dame. Didn't anyone inform you that ND's losses only count as 1/2 a loss in the BCS? :angry:
This is specifically because the media doesn't vote them down the polls like they are supposed to according to their own policy. What ever happened to lose early and rise, lose late and fall, never to recover. Doesn't ever seem to apply to USC, ND, and OU (i.e., those teams that the media ordains as having the right to play). Its also the same crap that lets Penn St leap LSU in the Harris. It doesn't matter if USC ekes one out against ND. They increase their lead (I suspect). But LSU not put Arkansas away in what is supposed to be a rivalry game, and we lose respect. Its just another excuse for the media pundits to make their vote count a bit more.
If you was just to compare the team's top four opponents, then LSU's chances are favorable as anybody. Unfortunately, you have to consider all 11 or 12 opponents.
The fact that they consider all opponents and weight them equally is the problem I have with the sytsem. To put another way if you play the #1 and #99 (avg 50) team in the country it is considered an easier schedule than playing #45 and #47 (avg 46) even though a top quality team would crush #45 and #47 maybe not as bad as #99, but who cares. The point is they stand a very good chance to lose to #1 and therefore in my opinion it is by far the more difficult schedule.
I think in the case you play a #1 the current system favors you more, and will easily outweigh playing 2 teams ranked around the 50's. Best example will be ND taking #1 to the wire, which is still fresh in the voters minds. Problem arises when you play 4-5 teams in the bottom quarter of the rankings, which the computers don't forget.
The computer polls all use SOS which don't give any more credit for playing top quality opponents like ND did with USC. That is why ND's SOS is pretty poor since they also played the likes of Syracuse and Navy that have weighted down there SOS.
That's what I mean when I said the problem arises when you play 4-5 relatively poor or losing teams. Although ND played #1 USC, the other teams on ND's schedule took a dive this year pretty much killing their SOS. But voters usually only remember the top teams, so they're quick to point out that USC game. The way the current BCS is setup the voters (Harris & Coaches) easily outweigh the computers.
