4th and two, what do you do??

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by Hawker45, Feb 28, 2006.

  1. Hawker45

    Hawker45 Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2004
    Messages:
    2,779
    Likes Received:
    440
    According to stats compiled at Cal.... go for it!!

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11607114/from/RS.2/

    "In a series of case studies, Romer found coaches to be overly conservative, opting for field goals in situations where, on average, choosing to go for a first down or a touchdown would up the odds of winning by 3 percent.
    In particular, Romer found that when faced with fourth-and-goal on the 2-yard line early in the game, going for a touchdown is the much wiser choice. While the field goal is a near certainty, getting a touchdown in that situation has about a 43 percent chance of success, he calculates. And failing to score a TD at least leaves the opponent deep in its own territory."

    After doing a whole bunch of complex math, and considering things like momentum and field position in more than 700 real NFL game situations, Romer concludes that whenever the chance of a touchdown is statistically 18 percent, that's the better choice.
     
  2. jjbodean1970

    jjbodean1970 Freshman

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2006
    Messages:
    232
    Likes Received:
    0
    i like it
     
  3. BostonBengal

    BostonBengal Founding Member

    Joined:
    May 14, 2003
    Messages:
    8,684
    Likes Received:
    295
    As do I.

    But, boy, if the person that did this study would have been completely "miffed" if he was doing the same research back in...say...the early '40's in which teams used to ACTUALLY PUNT the ball on 2nd or 3rd downs if they were backed up in their own territory (I know that's opposite end of the spectrum for this study as THIS particular study is about choices made when you're deep in your opponents end).
     
  4. TigerNtz

    TigerNtz Ridley

    Joined:
    Feb 12, 2006
    Messages:
    807
    Likes Received:
    24
    Yeah, but I couldn't live by it!:yelwink2:
     
  5. BostonBengal

    BostonBengal Founding Member

    Joined:
    May 14, 2003
    Messages:
    8,684
    Likes Received:
    295
    No, you and me both!

    Not in today's world of football anyways. Can you imagine the the sh*t that would hit the fan if a head coach went for it on 4th and 2 instead of attempting a FG and in the end, they lose by 2??? :shock:

    Fans today lynch him for sure!
     
  6. TigerNtz

    TigerNtz Ridley

    Joined:
    Feb 12, 2006
    Messages:
    807
    Likes Received:
    24
    Unless there is an 70% chance of a touchdown: Always take the points... Kick the field goal... :thumb:
     
  7. locoguano

    locoguano You sweat, you die...

    Joined:
    Jun 26, 2004
    Messages:
    9,127
    Likes Received:
    1,208
    you also have to factor in how well your offense is playing, mobility of your qb, whether your qb is good in those west coast style situations, whether you have a back who can make those clutch runs.. also consider the defense.. are they good against the run? do they have undersized cb's or slow LB's who can be exploited... if you are a team that puts up alot of points but has a weak defense, you probably want to go for it here.. but if you are a team with a ball-control offense and a strong D, you want to kick the field goal and play a points game...
     
  8. Hawker45

    Hawker45 Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 19, 2004
    Messages:
    2,779
    Likes Received:
    440
    There's some thinking going on there. How much time will you need to make the call? I see a timeout coming!:shock:
     
  9. TigerNtz

    TigerNtz Ridley

    Joined:
    Feb 12, 2006
    Messages:
    807
    Likes Received:
    24
    Yeah. Thinking is definitely a good thing! I agree with locoguano that all of those factors play an important role, but for quick response sake, take the points. There are, however, many situations in which you would go for the touchdown, I Agree!
     
  10. SabanFan

    SabanFan The voice of reason

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2002
    Messages:
    26,080
    Likes Received:
    1,245

    Paul Dietzel always punted on 3rd down and he won an NC.
     

Share This Page