Another War....

This has to be handled carefully and prudently and so far it is, but there are a number of disturbing variables that could make the whole operation go south in a hurry.

1. A no-fly zone alone will not keep Qaddafi from dominating the ground war. Nor will it protect civilians from atrocities. The Srebrenica atrocity and much ethnic cleaning went on in Bosnia under a no-fly zone. Saddam held power for 10 years under a no-fly zone.

2.Libya is not a vital US interest. Most of its oil goes to Europe, which is why the French found some balls. The EU has a far more vital interest in Libya than we do. So does the Arab League, who have found some balls, also. We need to let them handle their own chit. Best scenario for us is to use the Tomahawks and stealth jets to cripple the radar, command, and control facilities and then hand this operation off to the Euros and the Friendly Rags in quick order.

3. The Pentagon is openly unenthusiastic about this operation. Getting stuck in a third war on the other side of the planet stretches them to the limit. Getting involved in a third war in a muslim country country increases the perception that we are fighting Islam instead of Al Qaeda. We must learn to listen to our generals.

4. Libya is very different from Egypt and Tunisia. Those nations were ruled by strongmen, like every other country in the Arab world, but they were not insular. They had open access to the media and international educations. The people of Libya have been raised under tightly-controlled media access and a steady education of anti-colonialism and anti-Americanism. Their hatred of Qadaffi does not really diminish their hatred of the West. British diplomats and some western journalists have been treated very badly in Benghazi by the rebels.

5. This is not a peaceful revolution as in Egypt and Tunisia, where the people were united and the military did not fire on its own people but instead supported them. This conflict is a Civil War in Libya. Large numbers of Libyans are siding with Qadaffi and the Libyan military still supports him and has fired upon its own civilians. The rebels are unorganized and ill-equipped but they are fighting the government forces. It is not yet clear if they can win. The US has learned its lesson about getting too involved in someone else's civil war. Eventually both sides turn upon you as an occupier as happened in Vietnam and Iraq.

6. We really don't know who we are dealing with in Libya. The rebels are disorganized badly and many of the factions are hostile to the West. If Qadaffi falls, there will be a power vacuum that could be filled by a radical government. Or the place could disintegrate into a Balkans type of mess that no one will win.

7. Qadaffi is not going to leave voluntarily. He has no friends left in the world that would take him anyway, except perhaps Chavez in Venezuela. This could get very bloody, he could use his mustard gas. The US is too overextended to expend too much military logistics and combat power in a place with so many issues and no clear vital US interest. Korea is vital to our Pacific strategy and if the little nutjob in Pyongyang starts a war while we are tied up in three conflicts, we would be in deep kim-chee.

8. We had to take this action to prevent what was going to be a bloodbath in Benghazi and Tripoli. But this is a Mediterranean/European show and the prudent action for us now is to steadily hand this over to the Brits, the French, the Spanish, the Italians, the UAE, Quatar, and Morroco. They haven't been shy about handing over Afghnaistan to us. Jordan and Saudi Arabia have modern jets, but are unlikely to deploy them out of their own country due to popular unrest at home.