Arkansas overconfidence

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by EELSU1, Nov 27, 2002.

  1. EELSU1

    EELSU1 Founding Member

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    This post from the Arkansas AOL board sums up the general level of overconfidence that's going on over there:

    <<< If the people in Little Rock have to put out extra security over just a goalpost then the Razorbacks shouldnt play anymore games in Little Rock... I was sad to hear today about the extra security at War Memorial Stadium because of Arkansas fans taking down the goalpost... This really upsets me... atleast in Fayetteville they'd let us take the goalpost down... >>>

    There you have it - LSU has no chance against Arkansas. After all, Arkansas has won all 13 games it's played under Nutt in Little Rock. After all, Arkansas has won 5 game in a row. After all, Arkansas played better against Auburn than LSU did. After all, Arkansas' players want it so bad they can taste it.

    Yet:

    The combined record of the teams Arkansas has beaten in Little Rock over the past 5 years is just a few games over .500, and half of those teams were weaker OOC teams. Arkansas, presently unranked, has beaten 3 SEC teams (Ole Miss, USC, and MSU) during their current 5 game winning streak that haven't won a SEC game since Oct. 12. These same three teams are a combined 0-13 in their last 13 SEC games, and 5-17 in the league overall. Arkansas lost at Kentucky (a team LSU beat), lost badly to Alabama (as did LSU), but beat Auburn (a team LSU lost dismally to). Arkansas has also beaten #124 Sagarin-ranked UL-L and #135 Sagarin ranked Troy State in its last 5 games (I refer to Sagarin only because he's one of the few who tries to rank teams that low on the chart).

    My best guess is Arkansas fan's overconfidence comes from how their team performed vs. Auburn compared to how LSU did, and how LSU has had trouble scoring points recently. This is what's leading to the blowout scores they are predicting Friday. That LSU has one of the best defenses in the country has been ignored. That every LSU starter has a SEC Championship ring ( most of whom contributed during LSU's SECCG victory) is ignored. That Arkansas had to hold on for victory last week against MSU & their backup QB is ignored. That Arkansas needed a last-second goal line INT to beat one of the worst teams in Division 1-A two weeks ago (UL-L) is ignored. That after the UL-L game, UL-L's head coach said, "I don't feel like we lost this football game. I think the time ran out on us. I think we had them going, had them in a disarray and had a good play call there at the end," is ignored.

    The last time a team predicted scores vs. LSU on the level of what Arkansas fans are doing now was the Florida game. Of course, Florida fans had seen LSU's offense struggle vs. Virginia Tech, and to a lesser extent vs. MSU, so their average prediction of a 18 point blowout was warranted, wasn't it?

    When LSU won 36-7 that day, it was one of the most impressive victories in the SEC this year, and one of the worst losses Florida has suffered at Florida Field in years, the week after Florida had lost to Ole Miss and was supposed to get back on the winning track by whipping up on LSU. LSU just had no chance that day. Yet Matt Mauck, starting his 6th career game, played well enough to help LSU win.

    As Marcus Randall plays in his 6th SEC game in a row this Friday (and his 5th start overall, should he start), he and his team have nothing to lose once again. After all, if you talk to Arkansas fans, they've either already bought their SECCG tickets, predicted nothing less than a 16 point victory (their average prediction this week), predicted that the Arkansas D may shut LSU out, and are angry that they may not get to tear down the goalposts because security will be tight.

    We can only hope their team is as overconfident as their fans, though I doubt it seriously.

    We'll see you in 2 days.
     
  2. Hog4Life

    Hog4Life Freshman

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    Look, only a very small minority of Hog fans are overconfident about the game Friday.
    Do we like our chances? Yes, and why shouldn't we?
    We have won five in a row, no matter who it was against, that is a credible accomplishment.
    LSU has not been playing well lately. Can you really dispute that?

    Turn the tables, if you guys had won five straight, and we were coming to Red Stick after beating Ole Miss by one point at home, with a convincing home shutout loss to Bama in the not-too-distant background, wouldn't you like your chances, too?

    We like our chances. It's not a "sure thing" by any means.
    That's the way most Hog fans feel.
     
  3. MaconGATiger

    MaconGATiger Founding Member

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    Forwarded to my Hog buddies

    Great Post EELSU, humble but confident, the way of a winner:

    As I stated before I grew up in Arkansas but went to school at LSU, therefore I have many idiot Arkansans in my face at this point in time pitching this same overconfident babble. I have copied your post and emailed it to these very same idiots. Not because I think they will understand or agree but just because I'm hoping when we beat their asses on Friday they can chew on the facts it so clearly states while we celebrate our return to Atlanta.
     
  4. hawgwilde

    hawgwilde Founding Member

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    Hey EELSU

    it's called smack! If you feel so strong, then come over to WooPig.net and give us heck. But, wear your kevlar cup, it's brutal over there!

    And by the way, your offense has struggled (OM, Bama).

    Coonass!
     
  5. TennesseeTiger

    TennesseeTiger Founding Member

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    Re: Hey EELSU

    I love the blowouts you guys had of ULL and MSU! They were staggering!

    Hillbilly!!!
     
  6. hawgwilde

    hawgwilde Founding Member

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    Like your blowout of OM and your losses to Aubbie (that we killed) and Bama.

    Coonass!
     
  7. tigermark

    tigermark Rematches suck!

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    Well, we had won 6 in a row before playing Auburn. Auburn was coming off of losses to the Pigs and Floriduh. Didn't help us much...


    The reality is that LSU is playing Arkansas. The two teams will take the field and it will be a WAR. It has nothing to do with the recent statistics. The LSU fans perception about the outcome of this game has to do with the players and how well we think that they are playing and how well we think that they will match up.

    Barely getting by in the last two games against inferior opponents is not impressive. To LSU fans, it looks pretty obvious that the Pigs players are NOT playing that well right now.

    Now as far as LSU, we feel that our team is just pulling it all together. If we stop shooting ourselves in the foot and put together a game with half of the mental mistakes we have made in the last 4 games, I don't think that anyone in the SEC should beat us.

    The Ole Miss game should NOT have been that close. LSU dominated them but made MANY mental mistakes (not penalties, but missed blocks, blown coverage, throwing to the wrong receiver, fumbles, etc...). These are mistakes that LSU is committing that have nothing to do with the opponent. I hope that the coaching staff can do a better job this week, because when it happens this much, they seem to be the only ones to blame for this.

    The Bama game should have been a LOT closer than it was. Our team played them very tough, but the mental breakdowns were embarrassing. It was not as convincing a loss as the score seems to point out. The reality is that if Randell holds onto the ball on the UA 20, we finish the 70 yard drive and are down 14-7 over half-way through the 3rd quarter with momentum. Instead, our team loses all confidence in the O and gets pounded in the 4th quarter.

    On offense, at times we ran the ball REALLY well against Bummer (a better run D than the pigs). Once we were down to far, we had to abandon it. I think that we can run on anyone. If Saban can get Jimbo's head out of his ass and let Randell throw more stuff over the middle, I think that we open up the running game and score over 30 and win.

    On defense, Saban drools over one dimensional teams. That running game that you are so proud of... forget it. You will see 11 and 58 if you run inside and a LOT of 36 if you run outside. I feel very confident that we will hold you to less that 300 yards total (but if you only have 30 yards to go on each drive, that could still mean 30+ points).

    I think that this is LSU's game to lose. Cut out the mental mistakes on offense (thus winning the field position war), stick with a balanced offense, and the D wins it for us.
     
  8. TennesseeTiger

    TennesseeTiger Founding Member

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    Well, since you're comparing wins...we beat ULL 48-0 and allowed them less than 100 yards total offense...you gave up over 220 yards and 17 points...
     
  9. SabanFan

    SabanFan The voice of reason

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    All good points Hog4Life...

    But...It's the near loss to ULL that tells the tale. I don't care if the team was looking past them or around them or not looking at them at all. A so called SEC team should beat ULL with it's reserves. That Cajun team has 2, maybe 3 legitimate division ! players. They went into your house and nearly handed you your behinds. Trust me, if you can't beat ULL by 20 or 30 on ANY DAY OF THE WEEK, then you don't have a team that concerns me. If LSU loses it will be because we gave it away with turnovers, etc. If LSU plays well, YOU HAVE NO CHANCE.
     
  10. Hog4Life

    Hog4Life Freshman

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    I hear you saying how the Ole Miss game shouldn't have been that close.
    Well, did you know this?
    We led MSU 26-6 with 12 minutes to play. They had a 4th and 15 from our 20, and Lawrence Richardson steps in front of a Kevin Fant past. Instead of knocking it down or picking it off, it goes through his hands and up in the air, where an MSU receiver snags it for a score.
    ON the next MSU drive, they are facing a third and long. Tony Bua steps in front of a pass and tips it, right into the hands of a MSU receiver.
    So, I will say the MSU game wasn't as close as it sounded.

    That game was preceded by a lackluster performance agaisnt ULaLa. And we came out against MSU and dominated the line of scrimmage for much of the game.
    Same with our previous ho-hum non-conference game, Troy St.
    We turned around and blew Granny Holtz and the rest of the Cocks off the line the next week.
    So don't put too much stock into our pedestrian play in non-conference games.
    Bottom line: we ran on Auburn, we ran on Tennessee, we ran on USC, we ran on MSU, and we will run on LSU.
    Go Hogs!
     

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