Auburn's BCS chances: a closer look at the numbers

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by islstl, Nov 19, 2004.

  1. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    The current AP poll and their vote breakdown is as follows:

    ............1st...2nd....3rd
    USC......51.....11......3 = 1608
    Auburn....6......29....30 = 1536
    OU.........8......25....32 = 1536

    The current Coaches poll and the vote breakdown is as follows:
    (Note: guesstimation used in coming up with these numbers, as there are a handful of coaches that do not believe either OU or Auburn is one of the top 3 teams in the nation...USC's numbers are accurate however)

    ............1st...2nd....3rd....4th
    USC......51.......9......1.....0 = 1514
    OU.........6......26.....23.....6 = 1435
    Auburn....4......26.....27.....4 = 1433


    The Best Case Scenario for Auburn and the computer polls is as follows:

    ...............KM.....JS.....RB......ST.....PW......WC
    USC...........1......1.......3........1.......1........3 = .980
    OU.............2......2.......1........2.......2........1 = .970
    Auburn........3......3.......2........3.......3........2 = .930


    The Worst Case Scenario for Auburn and the computer polls is as follows:

    ...............KM.....JS.....RB......ST.....PW......WC
    USC...........1......1.......2........2.......2........2 = .970
    OU.............2......2.......1........1.......1........1 = .990
    Auburn........3......3.......3........3.......3........3 = .920

    The Most Probable Scenario for Auburn and the computer polls is as follows:

    ...............KM.....JS.....RB......ST.....PW......WC
    USC...........1......1.......2........1.......2........3 = .980
    OU.............2......2.......1........2.......1........1 = .980
    Auburn........3......3.......3........3.......3........2 = .920


    What would it take for Auburn to get to #2 in the BCS?

    Using the .980/.920 results above, the AP shifting 24 points to Auburn away from OU (37 % of voters), and the Coaches shifting 25 points to Auburn away from OU (41 % of voters) yields the following results:

    ..............AP....Coaches...Comp
    Auburn....1560....1458..... .920 = .9600 + .9561 + .920 = 2.8361/3 = .9454
    OU.........1512.....1410..... .980 = .9304 + .9246 + .980 = 2.8350/3 = .9450


    Remaining games affecting SOS for both teams (affects computer polls):

    Auburn Opponents:
    UL-Monroe over UL-Lafayette
    Tennessee over Vandy
    La. Tech over Boise State
    La. Tech over Rice
    Georgia over Ga. Tech

    OU Oppoents:
    Bowling Green over Toledo
    Houston over Louisville
    Oregon over Oregon State
    Kansas State over Iowa State
    Kansas over Missouri
    Nebraska over Colorado

    Biggest games are La. Tech over Boise St. and Houston over Louisville, as their computer ratings would go up significantly.

    I think Auburn's chances may lie in who OU plays in their CG game. I think OU's best chance is to hope Colorado wins out and finishes 7-4 and it would be a team that OU had not played this year. The worst case is for OU to face a 6-5 Nebraska again. It would be the worst case for the computer polls and also in the minds of the human pollsters. OU could beat Nebraska just as badly as last time and it would basically be overlooked by many voters. Beating a decent Colorado team coming in at 7-4 might be exactly what OU needs to stave off the hard charge by Auburn in the very last week of the season.

    Auburn also has an excellent chance at getting a few votes swing their way with an IMPRESSIVE victory over a good Alabama team, and playing them on the road. OU is hurt by playing Baylor, although it is on the road. Auburn must get at least half of the 24/25 vote swing occur after this weekend's games. Voters will be less likely to change their mind in the very last week of the season, although a trouncing of Tennessee will go a long way in doing just that.
     
  2. danky

    danky Founding Member

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    After last year Its no surprise we have some top notch BCS guru's here. I bet the barners are still learning...or can they?
     
  3. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Thanks. Even with the changes in simplifying the BCS system, it still appears as though we are down to a nail biter in the very last week of the season.

    Also, their is one other factor that may work in Auburn's favor. Especially regarding the AP poll, their are voters who are still miffed that USC did not get into the championship game against LSU last year, and think that OU did not deserve to be there. Advantage Auburn.
     
  4. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Nebraska beating CU, and Iowa St losing to Kansas St. and Missouri would give Nebraska the Big-12 North title due to their victory over CU (both would be 4-4) and Missouri (if they win out and go 4-4 as well). If Iowa St. wins 1 of the next 2 games, I have no idea what the tiebreaker would be for a 3 way tie with Nebraska and CU, since no team beat the other 2.
     
  5. TejasTiger

    TejasTiger Founding Member

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    Yeah, I was one of "those people" poring over every last BCS-related detail a year ago, but if LSU isn't in the mix, frankly, I don't care.

    Good to see others are still making that extra effort, though. Thanks! :thumb:

    BTW, zero chance of Houston beating Louisville tomorrow. No way, no how.

    I think public opinion is swinging away from OU, I really do. Many people think they didn't belong last year, and that memory is staying with people through this season.

    Also, Bob Stoop's comments really come across as being wussified. Hell, even Tubby looks statesman-like next to Stoops.

    I think southeastern AP and coaches need to start voting AU #1 if they lay the wood to Alabama. They understand how intense the rivalry is and they understand how good Alabama's defense is, too.

    The bookmark should be 18, as in Alabama's biggest margin of defeat this year has been 17 (twice).

    Win by, say, 24 or more and that should have a real impact on voters who will be watching AU's every move this weekend.

    It's going to rain tomorrow, too, but that's just too bad. Beating Alabama, say, 16-13 will hurt AU's cause almost as much as losing the game outright. They gotta figure out a way to get it done, no excuses.

    I'll tell you right now I'm for Auburn 100% of the way right now. Not only do I support fellow SEC teams by default during bowl season, but I've had it with West Coasters pissing on the SEC the past couple of years.

    In other words, I want Auburn to fight the good fight against the Trojans that we should have gotten the chance to fight last year. Reggie Bush is a stud, no doubt, but let's see how those SC boys handle Williams and Brown this time around. Those two are flat-out awesome.

    Somehow I doubt it'll be another 23-0 cakewalk...
     
  6. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Totally agreed on everything you said, Tejas.

    Are people from Texas just naturally brilliant?
     
  7. cadillacattack

    cadillacattack Illegitimi non carborundum est

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    Rushing Defense: USC #2, AU #12, OU #13
    Passing Defense: AU #8, USC #36, OU #65
    Pass Efficiency Defense: USC #5, AU #24, OU #43
    Total Defense: AU #5, USC #6, OU #23
    Scoring Defense: AU#1, USC #2, OU#14
     
  8. tirk

    tirk im the lyrical jessie james

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    nice work. as above, I am almost indifferent as well since LSU isn't in the mix yet this may get me back into actually looking at it closer. when bowl games come around, my heart doesn't let me pull against the SEC whether its good or bad.

    For some reason, I am rethinking my outcome of the Iron Bowl. I guess past history tells me this will not be a blowout as I previously thought.
     
  9. cadillacattack

    cadillacattack Illegitimi non carborundum est

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    tirk, JMO and some friendly advice, but lay the points and take the Tigers to cover - big.

    This one won't be close and it won't be pretty. I expect Bama to play with all the heart and determination they can muster, but in the end they are badly outmanned. Auburn's decided edge in depth will be a decisive factor.

    [​IMG]
     
  10. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Plain and simple, Alabama's only chance is turnovers. Alabama will not be able to march 70-80 yards for a TD. If Auburn holds onto the ball, then it's a flat out shellacking of Bama. And this bodes very well for the next AP/Coaches polls.
     

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