this was saban's big schtick, right? i think it has some value. i dont think vitale really analyzed LSU for this prediction, but LSU hasnt won many games over great teams this year (WV and UT, although neither are on duke's level). you certainly must consider duke a great team, even if you acknowledge their weaknesses. LSU has played some great teams close, but the difference between winning and losing is precisely what vitale is talking about (UConn, OhioSt). in some ways the first two of those examples are worse because LSU lost sizable leads. the biggest problem with this is that the two LSU losses to great teams were early, and with such a young team, substantial improvement is likely. i think the perception of the media (and many lsu fans too) would be different if TT hadnt gone down. a win over UF and/or SEC tourney champ would have changed things and shown everyone what this team is really capable of.
You bring up a great point. "Winners" generally win close games. Duke certainly has that winners mentality that enables them to pull out the close ones. I'm not saying our mens basketball team is a bunch of losers, but we tend to lose a lot of close ones. I think that's sorta Dick's point.