Donald Trump's Road to 1237

Discussion in 'Free Speech Alley' started by islstl, Mar 20, 2016.

  1. gumborue

    gumborue Throwin Ched

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    "Of course, the “comeback” Trump is much the same as the Trump of the eighties; there is no “new” Trump, just as there was never a “new” Nixon. Rather, all along there have been several Trumps: the hyperbole addict who prevaricates for fun and profit; the knowledgeable builder whose associates profess awe at his attention to detail; the narcissist whose self-absorption doesn’t account for his dead-on ability to exploit other people’s weaknesses; the perpetual seventeen-year-old who lives in a zero-sum world of winners and “total losers,” loyal friends and “complete scumbags”; the insatiable publicity hound who courts the press on a daily basis and, when he doesn’t like what he reads, attacks the messengers as “human garbage”; the chairman and largest stockholder of a billion-dollar public corporation who seems unable to resist heralding overly optimistic earnings projections, which then fail to materialize, thereby eroding the value of his investment—in sum, a fellow both slippery and naïve, artfully calculating and recklessly heedless of consequences."

    Political attacks come out of the woodwork now that he's a frontrunner.
    Oh, wait. What? This is from 1997?!

    http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1997/05/19/trump-solo
     
  2. gumborue

    gumborue Throwin Ched

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    evidently, match up polls don't mean anything this far out.
     
  3. gumborue

    gumborue Throwin Ched

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    all this talk of Kasich being VP even though he says he never will.

    has a governor ever been VP?
     
  4. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    15 of the 47 vice presidents have been governors

    13 of the first 29 were governors

    but only 2 of the last 18 vps have been governors (both coming from the Nixon administration and eventual resignation - Agnew and Rockefeller)

    So it's simply no longer a common practice.
     
  5. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Trump current delegate count: 847
    Bound delegates remaining: 620
    Road to 1237: 380 of 620 (61.3 %)

    Unbound delegates: 112 (including 54 from the upcoming Pennsylvania Prinary)
    Road to 1237: 380 of 732 (51.9 %) if you include unbound delegates

    Giving Trump 80 % of the 118 bound delegates from next Tuesday's big northeast primaries, and all of New Jersey yielding 145 of 169 possible delegates puts Trump at:

    Bound delegates: 992
    Bound delegates remaining: 451
    Road to 1237: 245 of 451 (54.3 %)

    Giving Cruz Nebraska, Montana and South Dakota (all winner take all) gives Cruz 92 of 92 delegates leaving Trump at:

    Bound delegates: 992
    Bound delegates remaining: 359
    Road to 1237: 245 of 359 (68.2 %)

    Giving Trump half of the delegates of New Mexico, Washington, Oregon and West Virginia (65 of 130) leaving Trump at:

    Bound delegates: 1057
    Bound delegates remaining: 229
    Road to 1237: 180 of 229 (78.6 %)

    Giving Trump 60 % of the California delegates leaving Trump at:

    Bound delegates: 1160
    Bound delegates remaining: 57
    Road to 1237: 77 of 57 (mathematically impossible)

    Indiana being the remaining state and totally unknown with no credible polling. As you can see while Indiana would not put Trump over the top, it would nonetheless go a long way as to whether Trump can come within 20-40 delegates shy of the 1237 required. With 112 unbound delegates, the closer to being just 56 short (half) or less for Trump the better. So what Trump does in Indiana will be crucial. He could easily come away with as little as 9 delegates as the winner of the statewide vote will garner most of them (no matter how close a victory).

    Keep in mind Pennsylvania will have almost half of the unbound delegates (54 of 112) and Trump could easily eclipse 50 % of the statewide vote next Tuesday in that state. How those 54 delegates don't get on board behind Trump is beyond me. If Indiana goes well for Trump, he would most likely be at or around the 1200 delegate mark. Those 54 delegates put him over the top.
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2016
  6. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Finally got some polling in Indiana by Fox, Trump with an 8 point lead over Cruz. It's safe to say, if Trump wins Indiana, he will not be stopped from getting the nomination, even if he is just short of 1237 (which he probably still will be).

    Trump 41
    Cruz 33
    Kasich 16
     
  7. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    California poll by Fox shows Trump running away with it:

    Trump 49
    Cruz 22
    Kasich 20

    If that's the case, then Trump will take almost all of the 172 delegates from that state. Which means he could lose Indiana and still be over the 1200 mark.
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2016
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  8. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Trump will win almost all 118 bound delegates tonight. Not crazy to think it will be 118 of 118.

    Going to make it extremely difficult to wrestle Indiana away from Trump next Tuesday.

    Big state is Pennsylvania. If he remains in that 60 % area, there is no way the 54 uncommitted delegates can vote for anyone but Trump at the convention. So then the 118 turns into 172 for tonight's contests and Trump getting at least 165 as it stands now.

    A republican poll in PA was done on who they think should get the unbound delegates if no one reaches 1237, 70 % polled said the front runner should get them. So the people have spoken.
     
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  9. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Trump won every county in all 5 states tonight.

    Let that sink in.
     
  10. Tiger in NC

    Tiger in NC There's a sucker born everyday...

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    I just saw where Ted Cruz named Carly Fiorina as his running mate.

    He does know that he is losing, right?
     
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