I posted this earlier in another thread but it’s appropriate here. It compares poll results from 2016 and now. Trump has significant drops everywhere.
Here’s a comparative analysis of the poll standings in 2016 and 2020. This from The Bulwark an admittedly anti Trump conservative publication
1. Landslide
Doug Sosnik is one of the smartest political operatives out there, a guy who gives you real insights without playing angles to make his team look better or position himself for the next client. And every so often he puts together a deck of electoral analysis and drops it out into the world, like a message in a bottle.
He released one of those bottles this week. You can see the entire deck
here. It is absolutely worth your time.
But there's one slide I want to pull out and highlight, because it tells the entire story of this election:
![[IMG]](https://mcusercontent.com/41df14e6667a85d0f6e4a4f5e/images/cdee60f9-9e86-4962-83b9-9e3629b433d3.jpg)
You can look at the details if you want, but the Big Takeaway from these numbers is that Trump has lost ground with every single group.
And he's lost
a lot of ground.
With all of them.
All men? Trump has lost 10 points.
White non-college men? Trump has lost 14 points.
White college women? Trump has lost 21 points.
Seniors? Trump has lost "only" 8 points.
In fact, seniors are the only group where Trump's decline hasn't been double-digits.
But here's what I want to focus on: If you pull back, what you see is a president who has lost large chunks of support literally everywhere.
And that is the very definition of losing reelection efforts.
Almost all presidents who win reelection do so by adding to their coalitions. If you're not adding support, then you're losing. There are a thimbleful of exceptions to this rule (Obama 2012), but in those instances the sitting president started with a landslide margin of victory from his first term.
So the problem for Trump isn't just the polling in this state or that state. It's that the entire dynamic of the election is going the wrong way for him. And there is nothing about the last four years that suggests that he is capable of building on his 2016 coalition. Just in terms of support, this has been an avalanche moving downhill since about March of 2017. There is no reason to think that it's suddenly going to stop and change direction.
By the way, on the subject of landslides: One of the theories
I outlined yesterdayabout the election is that Trump could close the gap and get to +6, maybe.
I want you to think about the 2008 election and the massive victory Barack Obama won that realigned much of American politcs.
Obama's margin of victory was +7.
Things are so bad for Trump that we are trying to conjure scenarios where maybe, if he gets lucky, he could tighten the race to the point where Biden is
only winning
Click to expand...
