Three more weeks until election day and as @Winston1 noted, Biden's lead has widened since my last post. Trump's Covid diagnosis not only took Trump off the campaign trail but it also shot a big hole in his alternate reality that the virus is going away. Trump has about half as much money as Biden at this point and is being grossly outspent in Texas, Georgia, Iowa and Ohio. Trump can't seem to decide if he wants to debate Biden or not but regardless the debate that was scheduled for this week is off. I am not sure what other opportunities Trump is going to have to change the narrative or the momentum that Biden has. I believe that Trump wanted Durham and Barr to come out with some cooked up charges against former Obama administration folks but it looks as though, just like his other "investigations," it will return nothing. Absolutely nothing at all. Below I have listed the states with the closest polling margins. If I were a Trump voter I would be very concerned that the top 6 states or districts were all won by Trump in 2016 yet he is now losing them. If the election were held today my count would be 375 for Biden and 163 for Trump...a blowout by any measure and likely an 8-10 point popular vote margin. I am sure some of you will want to dispute what I have presented here. Unless you can tell me which states Trump will win to get to 270 votes, don't waste your time. I don't care about your "polls" or your hunches that Trump is secretly ahead....give me something concrete. Tell me the states he will win en route to re-election. Currently if you just take the states where Biden is polling outside the margin of error he is at 279 electoral votes. Ohio - Biden leads by 0.2 pts Georgia - Biden leads by 0.7 pts Iowa - Biden leads by 0.8 pts Maine Dist. 2 - Biden leads by 1.6 pts Arizona - Biden leads by 3 pts North Carolina - Biden leads by 3 pts. Texas - Trump leads by 4 pts. Florida - Trump leads by 4.6 pts Missouri - Trump leads by 5 pts South Carolina - Trump leads by 5.7 pts Alaska - Trump leads by 6 pts Nebraska Dist. 2 - Biden leads by 6.5 pts Wisconsin - Biden leads by 6.8 pts Nevada - Biden leads by 7 pts Pennsylvania - Biden leads by 7.7 pts Michigan - Biden leads by 7.8 pts Montana - Trump leads by 8.7 pts Minnesota - Biden leads by 9 pts New Hampshire - Biden leads by 9.2 pts Virginia - Biden leads by 9.5 points Kansas - Trump leads by 10 pts
i as just thinking, people like to claim that the winner of the popular vote is actually favored by the american people. thats not necessarily true. people know where they live, and if they live in a swing state. me, for example, i do not live in a swing state and never have, so i am free to vote for anyone, knowing my vote has no chance to matter. so i vote libertarian. if my vote mattered, i would vote trump. and millions of people do not vote at all because they know it doesnt matter. that doesnt mean they do not have preferences. its a lie to say that the popular vote reflects popular opinion. we voters know how the system works.
good to see you NC... help me understand this, as you dont care about polls or hunches, unless they're the polls you like? here's a poll that has some interesting demographic support: https://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-tracking-poll-2020/ Trump Vs. Biden: IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll Trump Biden Jorgensen Hawkins Other Not sure OVERALL 43.4% 51.9% 2.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% Region Northeast 35% 61% 2% 2% 1% 0% Midwest 46% 50% 1% 1% 1% 1% South 50% 46% 3% - - - West 36% 57% 2% 1% 1% 1% Age 18-44 32% 61% 4% 1% 1% 0% 45-64 51% 46% 1% 1% - 1% 65+ 48% 48% 2% 0% - 0% Gender Male 52% 44% 2% 1% 0% 0% Female 36% 59% 3% 0% 0% 0% Race White 50% 45% 2% 0% 0% 1% Black/Hispanic 23% 71% 3% - 2% - you do realize if trump gets anywhere close to 23% support from blacks it's all over for biden? Also, biden better hope the 18 y/o demo comes through for him, if not, trump is reelected.
Have you ever looked at the data in the polls you cite? We can rip them apart if you would like. Results won’t be kind. Further, as I pointed out to Winston last week, HRC had the same and in some cases a stronger lead at this same point last time around. There are far more reasons to lie to pollsters this time around. But you cannot be objective with Trump which is why you were soooo wrong last time. Nothing you have posted tells me you have changed any.
