Fantasy Trade: Hillis for Miles Austin

Discussion in 'OTHER SPORTS Forum' started by bhelmLSU, Sep 28, 2010.

  1. bhelmLSU

    bhelmLSU Founding Member Staff Member

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    Ok, seems like a no-brainer but want some thoughts before I turn it down.

    I am one of 2 teams currently sitting at 3-0 in my league.

    Just picked up Hillis last week off the waiver wire and he blows up the Ravens D and scores like 26 points and has been named the new starter for the Browns going forward.

    I have Moreno, Turner, Hillis, Caddy, and Fred Jackson at RB. So you see the reason why I am hesitant to give up Hillis given Moreno is a little nicked up and Caddy and Jackson aren't really doing much so far.

    My WRs are Marshall, Braylon, Garcon, and Mark Clayton. All but Garcon are doing pretty well right now and the waiver wire has many options for one week replacements if needed unlike with the RBs where no options are really available. I usually on start 2 WRs each week.

    Hillis would likely be my flex player for most of the year if he continues the pattern. Currently he sits as the 10th best RB in fantasy points. Austin is the 10th WR.

    Thoughts?
     
  2. LaSalleAve

    LaSalleAve when in doubt, mumble

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    I would definitely make that trade. If anything you have plenty of wide receiver trade bait if one of your other guys goes down. Plus Hillis has been injury prone, and he was one of the reason's arkansas beat us in 07. But not in regulation.
     
  3. bhelmLSU

    bhelmLSU Founding Member Staff Member

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    Don't remember Hillis being that injury prone.

    Only trade bait I have at WR is Marshall but not giving him up.
     
  4. LaSalleAve

    LaSalleAve when in doubt, mumble

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    thought he was injured last season and the season before. to be honest, what i would do, is wait this week because Miles Austin is on bye. Then you should know if Hillis is legit. If he has another great week, then keep him, if he struggles see if the trade offer is still on the table.
     
  5. Bayou Bengal11

    Bayou Bengal11 ~Orlando Tiger Coonass~

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    I would jump on it.. Austin is a top 5 WR and Hillis isnt even a top 15 RB. Plus, Hillis' numbers will go down big time with the return of Harrison
     
  6. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    I would pull the trigger actually.

    When Harrison gets healthy, they'll go back to sharing carries and the head coach will go with the hot hand. So I think Hillis is going to be sporadic. I was very surprised to see Cleveland do what they did vs Baltimore, however. So maybe there is more to Hillis going forward than I think.

    Miles Austin is just money though. Dallas should get their act together offensively, and if they do, then Austin will start to blow up consistently (15-30 pts per game kind of range).

    Braylon might not be much good after the dude from Pittsburgh Steelers is finally activated.
     
  7. bhelmLSU

    bhelmLSU Founding Member Staff Member

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    I am going to sit on it for a little bit to think it through.

    Harrison has not been getting anything done and is pretty useless fantasy wise to this point. He only missed this game because of injury and Hillis has still been beating him in yards and TDs when they were both on the field. Hillis has put up consistent double digit fantasy points in all weeks and Harrison is lucky to get 5 points in any one week because Hillis is also used in the passing game and goal line TDs.

    I would normally just go for it but if I do I get an automatic loss this week and maybe 2 weeks if Moreno doesn't get back or I suffer another injury.

    The way I am looking at it is that around a bunch of fantasy websites they are saying to sell Austin high right now while he still has the big name and some value because they think Romo finally realizes he needs to spread the ball around to get the job done. WRs are hit or miss usually each week. One week they could have 20 points or 2 points like Austin had against a terrible passing D this week. With a RB you get more consistent production for the most part with a big week here and there but usually not too low and you usually know if they have a good matchup or not.

    Also, I would have to pick up a RB and we have zero fantasy worthy RBs on the wire but a handful of WRs to choose from if I am in a crunch for WR production.

    On the flip side, Hillis will likely to get a majority of the carries from here on out minus an injury the Browns will likely being playing from behind and passing more. But he is used in the passing game and it hasn't stopped him from 10+ games up to this point.

    I basically have you guys telling me to go for it and others telling me I can't with my lineup. Tough decision IMO.
     
  8. bhelmLSU

    bhelmLSU Founding Member Staff Member

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    The Braylon thing will be something to watch out for but Holmes hasn't proved anything with a new team yet and wasn't all world with the Steelers either. I think he will get a lot of production this year if Sanchez keeps up the pace but I think it hurts Crotchery more than Edwards. Edwards is usually the Redzone target and it seems like he and Sanchez have some chemistry right now and I hope that continues. It might actually open up the middle and short game for Edwards while Holmes spreads the defense with his speed.
     
  9. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Braylen Edwards sucks though.

    Just a FYI, had the Allen guy for Miami not stupidly fallen down, Braylen Edwards stats for the year would be:

    8 catches, 82 yards, 1 TD

    I bet there are some waiver wire WRs with better stats than that in your league.

    Last year 35 catches, 541 yards, 4 TDs. The last full year with Cleveland, 55 catches, 873 yards.

    Basically double the points for Edwards as far as what Miles will give you (e.g., 14 vs 7).

    Then figure out if you are losing that many points for Hillis' replacement.

    Austin Miles going forward = Guarantee
    Peyton Hillis going forward = definitely no guarantee
     
  10. bhelmLSU

    bhelmLSU Founding Member Staff Member

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    Actually Edwards is the 24th best WR fantasy wise right now and there is no one close to that available of the waiver wire. He is not a starter for me on a regular basis. Had to start him in the flex the last 2 weeks which really helped. 26 points in that span. I could care less about last year now that he is with a new team and if Sanchez keeps targeting him in the redzone.

    I never see WRs as a Guarantee though and that has worked for me over the years. I usually start 3 RBs and 2 WRs every week because RBs are more consistent week to week. That has put me in the playoffs every year and won a couple of leagues.

    I am not denying that Austin is one of the top WRs in the league and will likely be from here on forward. My only issue with taking him is my current lineup and taking Austin pretty much guarantees me 2-3 weeks of loses and maybe even more if I can't find a sleeper RB in that span. Pretty much have to pray that a top RB gets hurt and I can snag his backup while being last to pick on the waiver wire. Not going to happen...
     

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