the chances of him not moving the runners over and still getting out is greater than him hitting a double.
Sabermetrics would disagree. I would never bunt unless I was National League manager and the pitchet was up. While Fraley did get on and advance the runners, he never touched first base and if the CC first baseman had tagged him while he was writhing in pain he would have been out.
His goal was to get two runners in scoring position with less than 2 outs with your best situational hitter on deck in Mulkey Jr. Because they had to get a run in to tie the damn game or your season is fucking over. And what he did was get on first, get a run across the plate AND another in scoring position WITH NO OUTS. Hes the fastest runner on the team btw. So putting pressure on the defense played a big part here as well. And im with you on one thing. just because it works doesnt mean its the right call. But it was,there for the reasons stated above. just think if he struck out, hit into a double play or popped up without advancing the runners which is most likely. Late close game situations when you arent hitting, especially with RISP as you mentioned is the exact reason why you sacrifice there. Knowing your personnel and matchups will often override general statistics. Thats why Joe Maddon will always out manage a computer.
Its not that simple and since the ump signaled safe, that means he thought he touched the bag even though he didnt. So he was safe even if tagged.
I'm much more irritated by the runners being held up at 3rd in a series where as has been said there wasn't many hits with runners on. Hard to tell on TV but looked like they'd have had a real good chance to score at least 2 more that were left at 3rd after being held up.
Our 3b coach has been getting blasted for sending runners home in good situations (because most fans are dumb as fuck) yet we were getting thrown out regularly. All they care about is we got thrown out. So now, he got scared and started letting that override his aggressiveness. It cost us a run or two for sure. Gotta keep pressure on the defense. We chose to wait for another hit. Didnt happen.
here ya go bengalb: Run Expectancy 2/3 1 out after bunting them over giving up an out: . You've still reduced your overall run expectancy. But you've decreased your chances of scoring 0 runs by 3.62%, so you've increased your likelihood of scoring at least one run. What's more, you've increased your chances of scoring exactly one run by almost 5%, and exactly two runs by 6%! Basically, the sacrifice you're making is increasing your probability of scoring 1-2 runs at the expense of scoring 3 or more. So in a close game in the later innings and runners on first and second, it (and it hurts to say this) might make sense to bunt them over. there is no might about it. The math dictates it as well as the situation and personnel. Yall can apologize to Mainieri now. at least on that.
Sabrmetrics has it's flaws too, and this is one of them. Their entire formula is based on the situation (base runners/locations & number of outs). You have a higher % chance of scoring with no outs and runners at 1 & 2 than you do with 1 out and runners at 2 and 3. well no shit. you have a third fewer out to play with. but the scoring chance doesn't chance based on HOW you get that out. and with Fraley batting you already have a 67% chance that his at bat will result in an out. a bunt gives you the best chance of his out resulting in runners on 2 and 3 rather than them still being at 1 and . it's the closest you can come to actually dictating the result of an at bat. because 1 out with runners on 2 and 3 is plain and simply a better situation than 1 out with runners on 1 and 2 or 2 outs runner on 3. down 1 with 2 men in scoring position and 1 out, KRob is the first guy on this team I want at the plate if i could choose anyone from our lineup. and he was on deck at the time with Deichmann right behind him, so they had no choice but to pitch to him.
Duplantis would have scored but he hesitated and then went back to third. Paperski was held at third because he is slow.
