This is correct, assuming the non-AQ school is not in the title game. The rule reads it has to happen the first year that the pac10 or big ten has a team in the NC game between 2011 and 2014: from the bcs selection process on the bcs website: (For the games from January 2011 through 2014, the first year the Rose Bowl loses a team to the NCG and a team from the non-AQ group is an automatic qualifier, that non-AQ team will play in the Rose Bowl.)
One of the talking heads/analysts on ESPN was saying the Rose could take TCU this year to satisfy that requirement, implying that they had an option of WHEN to do it. I guess he was misinformed. I don't know if he meant that if Oregon were to play Boise in the BCS CG, that if the Rose takes TCU, they could meet that requirement even though it wasn't the scenario that dictated them being forced to take them. In this instance, if Boise State ends up #2 in the BCS and TCU #3, then TCU is not an automatic qualifier any longer since Boise State is in the BCS CG. TCU then turns into an at-large in that scenario.
I think that they could take TCU without being mandated to do so, and if they did that, it would satisfy their agreement to take a non-AQ team.
And that's where the PAC-10 being up in arms comes in. Especially if it's a 1 loss Stanford team being dissed, and the chatter is that the Rose is seriously considering a TCU team over a 1 loss Stanford. A second loss by Stanford isn't even necessary but obviously would make it easier for the Rose to validate their choice of TCU instead. I just can't see how the Rose would select anything other than a Stanford/Big 10 Champ matchup (if Stanford ends up 11-1). We shall see. My question is how in the hell did the BCS committee get to mandate this rule over the vaunted high and mighty Rose Bowl?
As I understand it, the other bowls were upset that the Rose wasn't taking these guys (or didn't have to) and the Sugar and Fiesta seemed to always get stuck with these "less the financially worthy" opponents. I read somewhere that it was the Rose Bowl that offered up this little compromise to keep things from getting nasty. In a way, the Rose Bowl might just take one of them this year to get it over with... especially given both Boise and TCU will probably remain highly ranked. It may be better to do it this year than a year or so down the road when one or the other is ranked 12th. I still think a lot is going to happen over the next two weeks to make some of this discussion moot.
I really think this is what would happen...they already had the TCU v Bosie matchup last year, and it was a one sided blow out. Both teams have the same persenal this year.