Bama opens 10-1/2 point favorite over LSU. Thought it might be 13 or 14. Tigers will have to play a special game to win this one.
That would be my guess. Although I suppose the way betting goes, you need to know if the line will go in LSU's favor, in that case you wait for it to get down under 10 and then bet it, so you can have the 10 points in full.
I would imagine the sharp money will come in on bama early because the public will push it to 12 or greater.
If you're betting on this game the under is the play if history is any indication. More on that in a second... The last three regular season meetings have been won by a combined total of 10 points. In all three games the team favored has failed to cover. However, LSU is 4-1-1 ATS in games held in Tuscaloosa. Balance that with when LSU fails to cover in the game preceding the Bama game they are 0-4-1 ATS. The crazy stat of the week has to be this: When Miles/LSU has a bye week before Bama the record is 1-3. When Saban/Bama has a bye week before LSU the record is 1-3. While the O/U hasn't been published (that I've seen on the places/people I use) there's a few things that lead me to believe it is the play. The last four games the under has been the play. The under is 4-0 for LSU following a bye week. Under is 4-0-1 in Bama's last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record— Tigers at 2-2 isn't a losing record... The over won in 2009 by one point, '08 by a half of a point. The real anomoly in this series (Miles - Saban era) was '07 where the O/U was 47.5 and 75 points were scored. (LSU gave 6.5 in that game, covered by .5)
Would you, or did you, ever guess that in 2011 when the LSU offense was averaging 39-40 per game you'd be held to 9? It's a game I won't play—too many question marks across the board.
