[ Where? Point production, the largest component of HFA, shows there's only a two point differential between home and away games for LSU this season. Over the past several years Bama and LSU have had one of the lowest in the NCAA.
i figured the line would have been 6 but LSU's dismantling of UK comes into play in tiger stadium. last game affects the line because its what joepublic remembers most. it will probably be closer to 6 as the week goes on.
That's exactly what I'm talking about. In 2013, the average HFA in the spread was 2.8. Out of 120 teams, LSU was ranked 88th and Alabama 116th. The formula I'm basing this on is the one used by PredictionMachine.com
oh i agree they arent reality. thats cool though you can find out the true number. whats auburn and baylor over the last few years? 4?
In 2012 the average ended up being 3.8 out of 120 teams. Baylor was getting more (ended ranked 42nd) and Auburn a little less (76th.) There's a little variation this season; Baylor getting a little more and Auburn a little less. I'd have to break down the numbers (math, not my forte') but guessing I'd put Auburn around 3 in 2013 and Baylor around close to 4.2-4.3. That site has been breaking down home court for a few years. They just started breaking down home field two years ago.
Surprised by this. MS State is only 13.5 over UK. LSU was giving 10.5 in that game. Granted we are at home and state plays them there. But interesting. I assumed OM would be 7-10 favorites. Its already moved a half a point. I do not expect it to move 3+ points (That is a TON of money on one side) but I think it settles around LSU +4. Fact is it was great to see a beating of Kentucky but if LSU goes 7-14 in passing again like against UK we lose by 30 again.
To each his own. Those that do, and have some success, spend a lot of time looking at a lot of teams. Personally, I'm of the opinion you have to be smart. I set aside a certain amount to play with for a season. If I lose it, I'm done. If I win that amount, I'm done for the season. Entertainment. That's all it is for me. This season I decided to only play three team parlays...just for the hell of it. It doesn't pay as much, but it's still a lot of fun.
