Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by TigerWar, Jun 29, 2004.
What do you guys think will be the opening line?
I'd say LSU -4.5
As do most other LSU fans, I really can't stand Aubarn. It would be wonderful for LSU to completely trounce Aubarn by 30 points! :grin:
To be more serious... The LSU/Aubarn game has been a very competitive game most of the time. Usually it is one of the most exciting games on LSU's schedule to watch as a fan. Playing at Aubarn, I imagine LSU will be favored by a field goal.
By the way I can't help but notice the mascot identity crisis going on in your user name!
That sounds fair, something between 4 and 5 or so.
You really need to look at how such lines are set historically, too. For example, there's an average line (historically) for games between ranked teams at that point in the season that is considered as well, I'm sure (ex: LSU should be no lower than #3 at game time, Auburn between #10-15).
Still, -4.5 sounds pretty reasonable.
Too early. These Vegas lines are not about predicting a score but about generating bets. A number that will generate bets right now is not the number that will generate bets on the week of the game.
I think LSU will be favored by a touchdown if both teams are undefeated, but the betting lines could run from -10 to +10 if that will induce players to lay money down.
Lines are created by Bookies to basically even out the number of bets on both sides of the line not just to generate bets. That is why a line will move. If one side is catching more bets than the other, it will move to try to get to an even point. If the books were just trying to lure betters and get more bets, there would never be a no line game which happens when key contributers get injured.
If the opening line has LSU -7, it'll quickly get down to under 5 by game time, IMO.
A 2-0 Auburn will have wins over two patsies, meaning they'll have a couple of blowouts to make most bettors think that this may be a competitive game after all. That'll keep the line under 7.
Maybe I'll give you -6.5 (since -7 is an important number in betting), but not over -7, not at Auburn versus a 2-0 SEC opponent.
The thing about this game is LSU is gonna win but at least 2 or 3 td's.. not saying that because im a fan, but because AU's defense wont stand a chance again the LSU running game.. the lost too many starters from last year and 2 games wont be enough for them to gel.
No matter what the line is, I believe LSU will dominate Auburn every bit as much as they did last year if not more.