lsu-i-like's Top 25%

I've created my own computer ranking system. As you probably know, computer polls don't really work until a number of games have been played, so I've decided to use numbers from last season to give a temporary starting point until this season's numbers can stand on their own. I'll be posting the top 25% of the 119 1A teams (~30 teams) and giving the corresponding AP ranking in brackets. Hopefully I'll have time to update weekly during the season.

Preseason 2006
me AP
01 03 0-0 Texas
02 06 0-0 USC
03 01 0-0 Ohio St
04 19 0-0 Penn St
05 05 0-0 W Virginia
06 17 0-0 Virginia Tech
07 21 0-0 Oregon
08 08 0-0 LSU
09 02 0-0 Notre Dame
10 26 0-0 Alabama
11 15 0-0 Georgia
12 22 0-0 TCU
13 07 0-0 Florida
14 04 0-0 Auburn
15 10 0-0 Oklahoma
16 00 0-0 UCLA
17 12 0-0 Miami Florida
18 28 0-0 Boston College
19 31 0-0 Wisconsin
20 14 0-0 Michigan
21 25 0-0 Texas Tech
22 13 0-0 Louisville
23 20 0-0 Nebraska
24 00 0-0 Minnesota
25 00 0-0 Northwestern
26 11 0-0 Florida St
27 16 0-0 Iowa
28 29 0-0 Georgia Tech
29 18 0-0 Clemson
30 24 0-0 Arizona St
xxx
32 09 0-0 California
42 23 0-0 Tennessee
62 27 0-0 Utah
41 30 0-0 Boise St
59 31 0-0 Arkansas
31 33 0-0 S Carolina
35 34 0-0 Tulsa
48 35 0-0 Texas A&M
43 36 0-0 Purdue
55 36 0-0 UTEP
57 36 0-0 BYU
37 39 0-0 Iowa St
64 39 0-0 N Illinois
95 39 0-0 Ole Miss
36 42 0-0 Michigan St
80 43 0-0 Arizona

 

09/02/2006
me +/- AP
01 +00 02 1-0 Texas
02 +00 03 1-0 USC
03 +00 01 1-0 Ohio St
04 +00 19 1-0 Penn St
05 +00 06 1-0 W Virginia
06 +00 16 1-0 Virginia Tech
07 +00 20 1-0 Oregon
08 +06 04 1-0 Auburn
09 -01 08 1-0 LSU
10 +00 26 1-0 Alabama
11 -02 04 1-0 Notre Dame
12 +03 15 1-0 Oklahoma
13 -01 23 1-0 TCU
14 -03 12 1-0 Georgia
15 -02 07 1-0 Florida
16 +06 13 1-0 Louisville
17 -01 28 1-0 UCLA
18 -01 17 0-1 Miami Florida
19 +02 24 1-0 Texas Tech
20 -02 32 1-0 Boston College
21 -02 27 1-0 Wisconsin
22 -02 10 1-0 Michigan
23 +00 21 1-0 Nebraska
24 +01 00 1-0 Northwestern
25 +10 36 1-0 Tulsa
26 +00 09 1-0 Florida St
27 +00 14 1-0 Iowa
28 -04 00 1-0 Minnesota
29 +05 00 1-0 N Carolina St
30 +03 00 1-0 Kansas
xxx
45 -03 11 1-0 Tennessee
32 -03 18 1-0 Clemson
48 -16 22 0-1 California
31 -01 25 1-0 Arizona St
41 -13 29 0-1 Georgia Tech
33 +08 30 1-0 Boise St
36 -05 31 1-0 S Carolina
39 +09 32 1-0 Texas A&M
44 +24 34 1-0 Pittsburgh
46 -03 34 1-0 Purdue
34 +32 36 1-0 Rutgers
68 +12 38 1-0 Arizona
38 +07 39 1-0 Missouri
42 +04 39 1-0 Fresno St
47 +08 41 1-0 UTEP

 

I'll volunteer my computer weighted ranking per CFN preseason.

Pre-Season 2006 by College Football News (Weighted)

1 Texas
2 Ohio State
3 Miami
4 Southern Cal
5 Auburn
6 Louisiana State
7 Oklahoma
8 California
9 Florida
10 Tennessee
11 Michigan
12 Florida State
13 Clemson
14 Nebraska
15 Virginia Tech
16 Louisville
17 West Virginia
18 Notre Dame
19 Penn State
20 Georgia
21 Iowa
22 Georgia Tech
23 Arizona State
24 Missouri
25 Alabama
26 Colorado
27 Texas Tech
28 Michigan State
29 Iowa State
30 Arkansas
31 Arizona
32 Boise State

 

09/09/2006
01 +01 04 1-0 USC
02 +01 01 2-0 Ohio St
03 -02 08 1-1 Texas
04 +01 05 2-0 W Virginia
05 +06 02 2-0 Notre Dame
06 +07 20 2-0 TCU
07 +01 03 2-0 Auburn
08 +07 07 2-0 Florida
09 -03 14 2-0 Virginia Tech
10 -03 18 2-0 Oregon
11 -02 06 2-0 LSU
12 +04 12 2-0 Louisville
13 +01 10 2-0 Georgia
14 -02 15 2-0 Oklahoma
15 -11 25 1-1 Penn St
16 +01 29 2-0 UCLA
17 +16 27 2-0 Boise St
18 +02 23 2-0 Boston College
19 +25 33 2-0 Pittsburgh
20 +06 09 2-0 Florida St
21 +01 11 2-0 Michigan
22 -01 32 2-0 Wisconsin
23 -04 24 2-0 Texas Tech
24 -14 28 2-0 Alabama
25 -07 17 1-1 Miami Florida
26 -03 19 2-0 Nebraska
27 +11 35 2-0 Missouri
28 +02 00 2-0 Kansas
29 +02 22 2-0 Arizona St
30 +04 31 2-0 Rutgers
xxx
31 +14 13 2-0 Tennessee
32 -05 16 2-0 Iowa
40 +08 21 1-1 California
43 -11 26 1-1 Clemson
39 +02 29 1-1 Georgia Tech
38 +01 33 2-0 Texas A&M
54 -08 36 2-0 Purdue

 

09/16/2006
01 +00 03 2-0 USC
02 +00 01 3-0 Ohio St
03 +00 07 2-1 Texas
04 +00 04 3-0 W Virginia
05 +02 02 3-0 Auburn
06 +00 16 3-0 TCU
07 +02 11 3-0 Virginia Tech
08 +05 09 3-0 Georgia
09 -01 05 3-0 Florida
10 +11 06 3-0 Michigan
11 +01 08 3-0 Louisville
12 +12 26 3-0 Alabama
13 -03 13 3-0 Oregon
14 +04 20 3-0 Boston College
15 -10 12 2-1 Notre Dame
16 -05 10 2-1 LSU
17 +00 25 3-0 Boise St
18 -04 17 2-1 Oklahoma
19 +03 31 3-0 Wisconsin
20 -05 24 2-1 Penn St
21 +02 34 2-1 Texas Tech
22 -06 29 2-0 UCLA
23 +07 28 3-0 Rutgers
24 +06 14 3-0 Iowa
25 +04 22 3-0 Arizona St
26 +00 23 2-1 Nebraska
27 +00 32 3-0 Missouri
28 +03 15 2-1 Tennessee
29 -10 00 2-1 Pittsburgh
30 +05 00 3-0 Navy
xxx
36 -16 18 2-1 Florida St
34 +09 19 2-1 Clemson
38 +02 21 2-1 California
31 -06 27 1-2 Miami Florida
35 +26 30 3-0 Michigan St
39 +00 33 2-1 Georgia Tech
40 -02 35 3-0 Texas A&M
41 +13 36 3-0 Purdue
59 +04 36 2-1 Arkansas

 

How does this formula work? Can you describe what is most important in determining the ranking?

 

I factor in # of losses, point differential between actual performance and your opponents' average performances, quality wins and bad losses, strength of performance, and strength of schedule. I am using alot of data from last season because there isn't enough data yet from this season. That explains why Texas is so high (NC last year) and LSU is so low (ugly loss to Georgia).

Once there is enough data for this season to stand on its own I won't be using anything from last season.

 

09/23/2006
01 +01 01 4-0 Ohio St
02 -01 03 3-0 USC
03 +00 07 3-1 Texas
04 +00 04 4-0 W Virginia
05 +00 02 4-0 Auburn
06 +04 06 4-0 Michigan
07 +04 08 4-0 Louisville
08 +05 14 3-0 Oregon
09 -03 17 3-0 TCU
10 +06 09 3-1 LSU
11 -02 05 4-0 Florida
12 +03 12 3-1 Notre Dame
13 -05 10 4-0 Georgia
14 -07 11 4-0 Virginia Tech
15 +03 16 3-1 Oklahoma
16 +01 22 4-0 Boise St
17 -03 26 3-1 Boston College
18 -06 40 3-1 Alabama
19 +01 32 2-2 Penn St
20 +01 33 3-1 Texas Tech
21 +13 18 3-1 Clemson
22 +02 13 4-0 Iowa
23 +04 25 4-0 Missouri
24 +02 21 3-1 Nebraska
25 +06 27 1-2 Miami Florida
26 -07 37 3-1 Wisconsin
27 -04 23 4-0 Rutgers
28 +12 30 4-0 Texas A&M
29 -01 15 3-1 Tennessee
30 +14 36 4-0 Wake Forest
xxx
34 +02 19 3-1 Florida St
31 +07 20 3-1 California
40 -01 24 3-1 Georgia Tech
33 +08 28 4-0 Purdue
39 -14 28 3-1 Arizona St
52 -17 30 3-1 Michigan St
37 +22 34 3-1 Arkansas
50 +32 34 3-1 Washington
38 -16 38 2-1 UCLA
48 +00 38 4-0 Houston

 

09/30/2006
01 +00 01 5-0 Ohio St
02 +00 03 4-0 USC
03 +01 04 4-0 W Virginia
04 +07 05 5-0 Florida
05 -02 07 4-1 Texas
06 +00 06 5-0 Michigan
07 -02 02 5-0 Auburn
08 +00 11 4-0 Oregon
09 -02 08 4-0 Louisville
10 +00 09 4-1 LSU
11 +01 12 4-1 Notre Dame
12 +03 14 3-1 Oklahoma
13 +00 10 5-0 Georgia
14 -05 29 3-1 TCU
15 +01 20 5-0 Boise St
16 +05 15 4-1 Clemson
17 +02 31 3-2 Penn St
18 +02 26 4-1 Texas Tech
19 -02 25 4-1 Boston College
20 +03 23 5-0 Missouri
21 +11 35 4-1 Pittsburgh
22 -08 21 4-1 Virginia Tech
23 -01 19 4-1 Iowa
24 +05 13 4-1 Tennessee
25 +01 30 4-1 Wisconsin
26 +05 16 4-1 California
27 +09 00 3-1 Tulsa
28 -04 22 4-1 Nebraska
29 -04 32 2-2 Miami Florida
30 -03 24 5-0 Rutgers
xxx
34 +00 17 3-1 Florida St
31 +09 18 4-1 Georgia Tech
40 -10 27 5-0 Wake Forest
42 +08 28 4-1 Washington
37 +01 33 3-1 UCLA
38 -01 34 3-1 Arkansas

 

This week I am using only 2006 data, which explains the big changes in the positions of teams.

10/07/2006
01 +03 02 6-0 Florida
02 +04 04 6-0 Michigan
03 -02 01 6-0 Ohio St
04 +05 07 5-0 Louisville
05 -03 03 5-0 USC
06 +18 08 5-1 Tennessee
07 +08 20 6-0 Boise St
08 +18 10 5-1 California
09 -06 05 5-0 W Virginia
10 +10 19 6-0 Missouri
11 -06 06 5-1 Texas
12 +04 12 5-1 Clemson
13 -02 09 5-1 Notre Dame
14 +16 24 5-0 Rutgers
15 -07 18 4-1 Oregon
16 -09 11 5-1 Auburn
17 +06 15 5-1 Iowa
18 -08 14 4-2 LSU
19 +00 26 4-1 Boston College
20 -08 23 3-2 Oklahoma
21 +10 13 5-1 Georgia Tech
22 -01 32 5-1 Pittsburgh
23 +12 00 5-1 Navy
24 +01 25 6-1 Wisconsin
25 +11 00 2-2 Air Force
26 +02 21 5-1 Nebraska
27 +00 00 4-1 Tulsa
28 +10 17 4-1 Arkansas
29 +10 00 5-1 Texas A&M
30 -08 22 4-1 Virginia Tech
xxx
31 +09 35 5-1 Wake Forest
32 -19 16 5-1 Georgia
34 -16 34 4-2 Texas Tech
35 +02 28 4-1 UCLA
37 +05 31 4-2 Washington
38 -09 28 3-2 Miami Florida
41 -07 27 3-2 Florida St
43 -26 30 4-2 Penn St
46 -03 35 4-2 BYU
48 +01 33 3-2 N Carolina St

Dropped Out
36 -22 00 3-2 TCU
43 -26 30 4-2 Penn St