I don't think the "Luck Factor" can ever be given enough credit at the end of a championship season. Our 2003 BCS Championship came on the shoulders of an amazing "Luck Factor." We were extremely lucky to stay so injury-free from start to finish. The strength and conditioning programs are due credit for sure, but luck played a huge part. Also, when it was all said and done, Kentucky's Jared Lorenzen made the worst mistake of his college career by tossing a lame duck pass over his shoulder and into the hands of a streaking Florida defender who returned the ball into the red zone allowing Florida to win the game as time expired. Had UK not turned the ball over and Lorenzen just taken the sack Florida would have lost and we would not have played in the Sugar Bowl. That is luck. I just can't see USC losing a football game next year. It is certainly possible, even likely, but I just can't see it. Iowa and LSU need very high pre-season rankings to have a shot at the Rose Bowl.
Yep. First and foremost, USC would have to lose. In terms of schedules, Iowa may have a tougher run with games at OSU, Purdue, and Wisconsin. At least they are spread out, though. We had a hellacious gauntlet of road trips this past year at Auburn, UGA, and Florida. Also, that Michigan game will be tough, even though you get them at home. They should have a pretty explosive offense next year, even with the loss of Braylon Edwards. We have a cake away schedule next year with MSU, Ole Miss, and Vandy. Not exactly world beaters there. Alabama will probably be pretty tough, though. Im starting to get a little worried about the ASU game. That will be our first game against a quality opponent under the new coach. I dont care to get into a shootout with them, even though they will have to replace their QB. Overall, I certainly think its possible, and it would be kind of neat to see it. I cant remember the last time we played the same team in a bowl game two years in a row.
BB, you are 100% correct. As invinicible as USC looked in the NC game (I was in the stands), USC had 3 VERY close calls last year. Cal more than doubled USCs first downs and total yardage, but made enough mistakes to allow USC to pull out the W. Stanford led USC 28-17 at halftime, lost by 3, and it wasn't over until the final incompletion by Stanford. Oregon State played toe-to-toe with USC in the "fog game" and nearly won. Both Iowa and LSU will definitely be in the Top 10 to start the season, maybe close to Top 5... that is enough, but the teams above still have to lose.
Ouch, that Northern Iowa game is gonna leave a mark. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Wisconsin avoid Iowa and Michigan last year? I ask because they were treated with so little national respect when they got off to their undefeated start last year, I imagined it had to do with a soft conference schedule up until that time. Auburn needs an opponent now, since So. Miss just backed out. You guys would love it because Auburn is a "name" team that will be just average to above average in 2005.
Tejas, Yes, the Northern Iowa game has us fuming a bit. Missouri isn't exactly a world-beater, but they are Big-12 and have Smith at QB again... They had no reason to back out other than they didn't want to get beat (they replaced us with Arkansas State). Auburn would have been an awesome (and tough) replacement. Wisconsin did avoid Michigan, but Iowa beat them the last game of the season 30-7. Wisconsin's OCC was Central FLorida, UNLV, and Arizona. Then they beat Penn State, Illinois, @Ohio State, @Purdue, Northwestern, and Minnesota. They went into the last 2 games at 9-0 and I believe ranked #5. Then their wheels fell off losing to Michigan State 49-14 and Iowa 30-7. I thought they regrouped well and gave Georgia a very good game in the Outback.
The Wissies avoided us until the end... we beat 'em 30-7 to finish the season. They did not play Michigan. One of the things that may add interest to this thread is we share tough weekends next year. You play Tennessee on 9/24, the same date we play tOSU. LSU also plays Auburn on 10/22, the same weekend we play Michigan. tOSU makes me very nervous as we go there to open the conference... and Ferentz's teams seem to get better as the season wears on. On the bright side, we have been Michigan's worst nightmare lately and we catch them later in the season. I hope our games on 9/24 are at different times!!
I commend the job Ferentz is doing in Iowa, and watching Iowa the last couple of years ('02 beating of Michigan in the Big House, thumping Florida in the Outback, etc.. I especially enjoyed the demantling of a talented OSU 33-7. Watching Iowa perform against LSU this year made me mentioned to one of my friends Iowa is turning into a lil powerhouse. As far as NC, I'm always quick to remember USC pounding a very physical team Iowa led by B. Banks, Gallery, Steinbach, etc... in the Orange. Some people were thinking Iowa was playing some of the best ball in the country until they ran into a 2-loss USC.
Very nice comments. Yes, the USC Orange Bowl loss was very tough to watch. Interestingly, Ferentz still takes the blame for not having the team prepared correctly. Not to take away from USC, who soundly WON the game in the second half, but Iowa looked VERY ill-prepared... Ferentz let his players go home for Christmas, arrive a few days before the game, and enjoy Miami too much... He openly took responsibility, completely changed our preparation for the Outback Bowl against Florida, and it showed. The Orange Bowl is STILL a very fond memory for many Iowa fans... Iowa had 49-50k fans at the game, and the parking lots looked like Kinnick Stadium South... hundreds of Iowa flags, whole hogs grilling, GREAT tailgate all day... Then we ran back the opening kickoff for a TD and that is the loudest I have EVER heard a stadium. We blew numerous first-half opportunities, went into halftime tied 10-10, then looked like crap in the second half.... USC was a VERY good 10-2 team, for sure! EDIT: Hawker, I'm glad we didn't contradict each other!
Ferentz took total blame for our performance against fUSC in the Orange Bowl. He let the team off for Christmas an reassembled them just prior to the game. The game was tight at the half, but a few quick Iowa turnovers to start the second half and we were done. We couldn't get the defense off the field. Ferentz change his whole bowl-prep philosophy after that game. (Now my nightmares will start again, thanks for the refreshment...lol)
