That UAB game has made where we are now even more special to me. My college years (95-99) were up and down and our new coach brought excitement for the 2000 season. After the UAB game, all of that excitement was crushed. The next week was Tennessee and it's amazing how much of a 180 degree turn of events it was. It made Booty the villain and Rohan the hero. It showed Saban how rough the fans can be after a loss and how electrifying Tiger Stadium can be after an upset win. LSU football would never be the same after those two games.
Strictly from a wagering perspective with no flame intended: With AU playing ULM at home and MSU on the road, they likely come in 2-0. LSU playing OSU and ASU at home, we should also be 2-0. Any reason you believe that the line will shift at least 3 points in our favor for an away game? Do you think AU will look just 'average' against MSU? Odds are they roll over ULM like we should roll over ASU. I would predict a solid win for AU over MSU, and I believe the our Tigers will beat OSU in the opener. Just curious as to why you think the line will move that much. :geaux:
I would agree that the line will shift. I was thinking LSU minus 4 to minus 4.5 by kickoff. As you are surely aware, the line will shift to "cover" the bookmaker based on the relative balance/imbalance in wagers on one side or the other. LSU is clearly acknowledged as one of the elite teams (AU is not), LSU will be ranked in the top 5 (Auburn will be ranked 18-23) , LSU is the more publicized team from a positive standpoint and Auburn has definitely received it's share of negative pub. All in all, the prognosticators will believe LSU to be an easy 7 point favorite on a neutral field, subtract 3pts for the proverbial home-field asvantage, and 4 points sounds about right. JMO.
Valid points. I still think that the OSU and MSU games will have some bearing, from both a performance and injury potential. In particular, I think the development of the LSU QB situation could have a significant impact on the movement of the line leading up to the game. Where I was coming from is that you can't really pay too much attention to the line until the week of the game. Particularly since that will be when the money will start rolling in and the line shifts begin. I would agree that opening at LSU -1 will likely move the line. The question is how much, and that won't be known until the week before.
Yep, I'd guess that the LSU-1 line is an attempt to get a few of the un-initiated, larger fish to bite while the euphoria of preseason hype is upon them. Most of the whales (smart money) will come in the Monday before gameday. I'm partial to the Venetian sportsbook though I usually stay elsewhere when in Vegas. The team there is VERY knowledgeable about the SEC, in particular, but I've not had an opportunity to speak with them since March.
I only bet a game about once a decade. The last time I bet i was able to middle a game with a 5 point swing and happened to hit it. The only reason I was able to do that was because of one bookie not be as well connected and him moving his line later. I would risk the juice only all day if I had the chance. Is there a point where you guys who bet a lot try to middle the bet? At least that's what the guys I know call it.
I think the line will move mainly because I believe most betters will take LSU -1 if both teams are undefeated. I think OSU is stronger than either Auburn opponent in most peoples perception. I DO think AU will struggle a bit at MSU. Its the first big home game for Croom and you know they will be up for that game. I expect AU to win, but closer than people think. this is a futures bet, so this line goes away once the season starts and a new line appears game week. I won UGA & AU last year and 40-1 on the MNC, all preseason. I would have to go look but I believe the line worked in my favor both games, but the difference did not matter in the end. :lsug: :champs:
I predict the Tigers to win this one for a 3 reasons: 1) LSU has a dominating defence that will, for the second year in a row, shut down Cavilier...I mean Cadilac Williams. 2) LSU's ofence will still be good. Even without Mauck, who was great, but wasn't the biggest reason for last season's success, Randall will have enough experience to at least get a couple of completions but more importantly, he will hand the ball off to one of our awesome halfbacks, Joe Addai, J. Vincent, and four of the other potentials greats. 3) Auburn lost the defence. Five of seven good front guys have left Auburn. Sorry Auburn Tigers, or War Eagle, or what ever the hell your calling yorselves this week, you'll have to wait a few more years until y'all get a "W" against the real Tigers of the SEC jungle.
In my business that's what we call being up two on the first tee. Oh, man..... that's like too easy and so tempting. Even I can't be that cold. Don't any body ever say I didn't use restraint on this board :grin:
