Mathematically speaking

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by Ironman, Dec 2, 2003.

  1. Ironman

    Ironman Freshman

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    The way I have figured it LSU needs two things to happen to jump to # 2 in the BCS rankings, assuming both LSU & USC take care of business Saturday:

    1) A Syracuse win over ND will guarantee that LSU takes 6 of the 7 computer polls. (LSU 2.0 / USC 2.83). This will also adjust the SOS in favor of LSU but barely! (LSU 1.64 / USC 1.68).

    2) Georgia MUST retain at least a # 9 spot in the BCS allowing LSU the 0.2 Quality Win points. (LSU -0.2 / USC -0)

    Now, given that pollsters do not change votes without a compelling reason i.e. a loss, (LSU 3.0 / USC 2.0)

    BCS rankings if both of those things happen: (LSU 6.44 / USC 6.51) LSU takes second place by .07 points!

    Further, ND is a 2 point favorite so we need an upset. Georgia has 5.56 points to give before they slide to # 10 in the BCS with their loss. 1 point for the loss / -0.1 Quality Win for the Tennessee jump / -.36 for SOS / The computer polls will not drop them far for losing to # 3 LSU - projection 2.02 conservatively / This leaves Georgia 3 places to fall in the Human polls with the loss. That is 209 points AP and 179 points ESPN/COACHES. This seems likely, unless they just completely fall apart for the national audience.

    Conclusion, listen to Coach Saban and focus winning the SEC. The rest (LET'S GO ORANGE) will take care of itself.

    AAHHHHH!
     
  2. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    There is absolutely NO WAY Georgia will only fall to a 9th spot in the BCS should they lose to LSU. 3 Loss Georgia will fall behind 2 loss teams Texas, Tennessee, Ohio State, Florida State and Miami FL in the human polls. Minimum of 10th spot in the human polls, hopefully no further. Your SOS is way off anyway, Syracuse win over Notre Dame guarantees us a .08 advantage in SOS over USC, no matter what the outcome of the other games are. In that case, we only need a 10th place showing by Georgia in the BCS polls and retain a -.10 QW. LSU wins by .01 in this scenario. Go see my post "LSU vs. USC for #2 in the BCS" for the most up-to-date and accurate information.

    A Syracuse win does project LSU to 2nd in the Colley Poll, giving us 5 guaranteed #2 finishes of the 7 computer polls. We only need 1 of the other 2 to finish 2nd in the BCS. I am projecting 2nd in both for LSU anyway, so somehow ending up 3rd in BOTH of these polls is extremely unlikely.
     
  3. SpringTiger

    SpringTiger Founding Member

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    I hope LSU and USC both win and finish in a tie for 2nd in the BCS! LSU would win the tie-breaker and it would, therefore, become more apparent to all observers that LSU is more deserving!
     

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