I got into a discussion yesterday about confidence pools for the bowl games, whether or not one should choose the favorites, and how correct Vegas was in the lines posted. The disparity in the margin of victory found between how the lines were set versus how the games ended demonstrates how these lines are set to achieve equal action. It also shows these lines aren't intended to mean team A is seven points better than team B if team A is giving seven points. Green: Games Vegas had right IF you were playing the money line and choosing the favorites. (roughly 63% correct.) Red: The true margin of victory. Look how many games were within seven points...no, look how FEW games were within seven points. **I screwed up on Ball State. They lost. I'm blaming Jack Honey and a few other things...
ok, forget Vegas and look at all of the big polls out there. Polls that had tOSU ranked above TCU: CFP Committee AP Coaches ESPN Power Rankings Anderson-Hester (former BCS Computer) Billingsley (former BCS Computer) Colley Matrix (former BCS computer) Peter Wolfe (former BCS computer) Sagarin (former BCS computer) Polls that had TCU ranked above tOSU: Massey (former BCS computer)
not about the polls with me. its about the one who decided tcu was 3rd 7 days prior and osu was 5 or 6. then team A wins by 52 and drops 3 spots. furthermore, vegas would have tcu favored over osu knowing OSU is a public team while no one backs TCU. ie, public on OSU, sharps on tcu.
