Louisville's just not that good overall. It will be a shootout, but USF has opportunistic defense and will cause just enough turnovers to win in the end. And the game is at home. Their toughest test will be Uconn on the road. Not good.
Syracuse will give them a test. Louisville can lut up 60... but their D may give up 60 as well. UL suck like the rest of the Big East.