http://www.pollingreport.com/
Since the Republican convention and the announcement of Palin, every poll has swung sharply towards McCain/Palin. Is this a convention bounce or something long term? Obama got very little bounce from the convention compared to what was expected. His was short lived (approx 3 days) and few percentage points.
The recent polls show most of the independents are now breaking for McCain. Even more encouraging for McCain, and troubling for Obama, is the female vote. A majority of women where largely in Obama's corner but they are moving in big numbers towards McCain/Palin. Every poll since the convention shows the race in McCains favor or in a statistical dead heat.
While national polls are for talking fodder, the polling in the all important swing states is even more encouraging for McCain. Where the election will likely be won or lost based on electoral college votes, McCain has made incredible gains.
Did McCain just hit that much of a home run with Palin or has Obama lost his luster a little? I would think its a combination of both. Obama hasnt helped himself with the 180 degree turn around on the surge. Palin is already moving the evangelical's back into the contest and appealing to women and independents. Further, Obama's recent "lipstick on a pig" comment is going to erode womens support even more when those polls are taken. Even Geraldine Ferraro was sharply criticizing those comments as sexist last night and Obama's inexperieince is more glaring.
Two months ago I thought this would be a landslide electoral college victory for Obama. It could still happen but there is definately movement and that has changed the face of this election.
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