My daughter reports that LSU's Veterinary Medicine Staff are in the process of slow evacuation of about 200 of their horses. This is apparently purely cautionary, as the surge is not expected to crest the levee system. Horses, of course, are difficult to move, so the staff is moving them now so as to not have them to worry about should the situation become more threatening. On a related note, the current spring flood, though not a Corps of Engineers Project Design-500 year flood, is so massive that the Bonnet Carre Spillway has been opened for only the 10th time since its creation, and--even more telling--the Morganza Spillway (due to open tomorrow) has only been used once before (1973). This will certainly test the entire levee system for sure; LSU is guarding against seepage, which can be a major headache even without a levee breach. Though I write from Phoenix, AZ, I have a stake in Louisiana, with property, home, friends, a daughter and the LSU Football & Community to be concerned about. And if the SHTF, I'll be down there with y'all, sandbagging for dear life! So, keep fingers crossed, LA has had enough already, but nature could care less.
While the precautions are necessary I think the only people who should worry are the ones who have interests in the path of the Morganza Floodway. The crest at Baton rouge isn't going to be any higher than past abnormally high crests. Without the opening of the Floodway there would be concern.
If I owned a million-dollar house in River Bend, I'd be concerned and they are. The levees are massive but not failure-proof. Water goes undre the levees a lot in these conditions. There are sand boils all along the levee. The levee subsides and compacts unevenly, so there are low spots and that is where sandbags are being used. But overtopping and seepage are not the big problems. The big problem is that of levee failure. If there is a weak spot or a clay layer that slides under pressure or a sandy layer than lets water move through it, a section of levee could fail and if it does the river will completely exploit it and make a huge crevasse that will flood the entire area between the levee and the high ground along Highland road. Bayou Manchac was historically a natural floodway that carried away flood water every spring into the Amite and into Lake Pontchartrain. The entire backswamp stretching from Tiger Stadium to Spanish Lake was flooded annually. That outlet was cut off with the new levee system and now those lowlands are cleared and filled with subdivisions, farms, and houses. An east levee breach south of Baton Rouge could send a raging torrent through Bayou Manchac and flood the entire backswamp again.
Precisely! "Levee FAILURE" Anyone not particularly concerned about this unfolding event because the cresting numbers may not be threatening needs to re-read your post. Since when do the works of Man guarantee safety?--especially given the forces about to be unleashed. This event will be the Test...this IS one of the 'big ones.' (And the open Morganza Spillway will theoretically reduce the crests at BR & NOLA by only 1 - 1.5 feet--such is the volume and pressure of all those silt and debris-laden waters of the Miss.). Someone stated, "no battle plan survives first contact with the enemy" --or something like that. Well, we will soon see what billions of dollars of infrastructure will do for us!
Two barges strike Mississippi River bridge in Baton Rouge Two barges strike Mississippi River bridge in Baton Rouge | NOLA.com Time to start Sh**tin'... and if barges hit a levee...time to start Gittin'
See what I mean? Billions for the USAC of Engineers Old River Project to protect BR & some yahoo could lose control of some barges, damage some levees, promote a breach--and the whole house of cards could tumble. Sheeesh! H2O + Volume + Velocity + Stupidity = Disaster
It's not like this level of the river hasn't happened before is what I was getting at. It happens abut every 3-4 years. Just so happens this year gets press because of the opening of Morganza. Sure there is a danger in a levee breach...every year the water gets to the levee system and at any time you could have failure. I just think it's being made more of an issue since both floodways are opened. No one batted an eye when the water got to the last step on the Baton Rouge levee in 2008. Everyone climbed to the top and went..."Ohhh look how high it is." If you are worried now you should be worried every spring when the water comes up. No different this spring.
Someone please correct me if I am wrong, but I believe what is different and whats makes this significantly more dangerous is the volume of water coming down and the length of time the levee will have to hold. I believe we are facing 3-4 weeks or more of sustained levee pressure.
True, but not all flood events are the same. A couple of extra feet is a huge increase in water pressure. People below the levees should worry each year. Levees fail every year somewhere in the valley, there were 28 in the 1993 flood. But this is a really big one and the danger is indeed higher.
