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Projected BCS Rankings (Ohio State vs Auburn)

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by islstl, Dec 1, 2013.

  1. islstl

    islstl Occupy the BCS Staff Member

    ..........................Coaches.....Harris.....Computer....Total
    2. Ohio State....... .9432..... .9478......... .9400..... .9437
    3. Auburn............ .9271...... .9227......... .9400.... .9299

    If Auburn ends up with a computer bump of .9600 to .9200 for Ohio State after next weekend (very possible since Missouri is MUCH HIGHER ranked in the computer polls than Michigan State), here is the final result with no human poll changes:

    ..........................Coaches.....Harris.....Computer....Total
    2. Ohio State....... .9432..... .9478......... .9200..... .9370
    3. Auburn............ .9271...... .9227......... .9600.... .9366

    That is essentially 1 lone voter from the Coaches poll changing his mind and switching out Ohio State and Auburn on their ballot.

    There is no doubt in my mind that if Auburn beats Missouri, they are indeed in the national title game. And rightfully so.

    The only scenario Ohio State goes is a drubbing of Michigan State and Auburn barely squeaking by Missouri. It would also help Ohio State greatly if Duke gives FSU a battle and takes away some first place votes.
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2013
  2. onceanlsufan

    onceanlsufan Senior Member

    Personally, I think Mizzou got screwed in the ranking.

    It doesn't matter to me which team wins next week in the SECCG ... both should be ranked higher than OSU.

    If Mizzou beats AU .. they should be ranked above OSU, just as AU should be ranked above OSU if they beat Mizzou.

    Heck .. for that matter ... Bama should be ranked above OSU. OSU just does not play any quality opponents. It's like putting an undefeated Boise State in the NC game.
     
  3. islstl

    islstl Occupy the BCS Staff Member

    Mizzou's loss looks better than Auburn's. That's the crazy thing. But ultimately the win over Alabama by Auburn trumps it.
     
  4. islstl

    islstl Occupy the BCS Staff Member

    That is an accurate characterization.
     
  5. islstl

    islstl Occupy the BCS Staff Member

    Computer polls actually still have Ohio State ahead .960 to .920. There are 4 polls that have Ohio State one spot ahead of Auburn.

    Missouri is averaging a 5.25 ranking in the computer polls. Michigan State averages 10.5. Is that difference in strenth of victory enough to get Auburn ahead of Ohio State in each of those 4 polls?

    If they do, then the scenario I drew up holds, with only 1 coach needing to switch out his 2nd place vote for Auburn instead of Ohio State (or 2 Harris voters). That will probably happen.

    If Auburn can only jump Ohio State in 3 of those 4 computer polls, then we are talking about 8 coaches changing their minds and 14 Harris Poll voters. That's where an Auburn blowout and an uninspiring Ohio State win comes into play. Otherwise, Auburn is done.

    Roughly speaking, Ohio State in the Coaches' Poll is 2nd on 36 of the 62 ballots (with 4 more having them 1st). So that would be 8 of 36 voters changing their minds, or 22 % of the voters).

    Auburn is basically where Oklahoma State was back in 2011, trying to somehow some way get to that #2 spot. It won't be easy. Likely it comes up just short if Ohio State wins. Just like Oklahoma State.

    I will have a better idea of the chances of Auburn in those computer polls once they are published tomorrow.
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2013
  6. StaceyO

    StaceyO Football Turns Me On

    Or how about this? How about...Michigan State just out and out beats OSU?

    I wouldn't even be surprised.
     
  7. islstl

    islstl Occupy the BCS Staff Member

    Oh yeah, there is always that possibiliy. In fact I think Michigan State exposes OSU this Saturday for the fraud that they are.
     
  8. LaSalleAve

    LaSalleAve when in doubt, mumble

    Michigan State has to score though.
     
    LSUMASTERMIND and StaceyO like this.
  9. islstl

    islstl Occupy the BCS Staff Member

    Michigan State 31, Ohio State 20
     
  10. Winston1

    Winston1 Senior Member

    You're right but the Spartan O has shown signs of life.
     

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