THOUGHT # 1: Both defenses are fairly evenly matched. Although LSU's defense has better stats in most areas (really, all but interceptions), consider the following facts:
Florida's opponents average 31 ppg. Florida has held them to 17. Or, 55%
LSU's opponents average 25 ppg. LSU has held them to 12. Or, Or, 48%
Florida's opponents average 384 ypg. Florida has held them to 291. Or, 76%
LSU's opponents average 356 ypg. LSU has held them to 246. Or, 69%
Lower % is better performance in those examples. The Tigers hold the advantages, but for the 6th game of the season, those are pretty similar outcomes.
THOUGHT #2: Florida's offense is struggling a bit, but not as badly as LSU's. The difference is mainly in Florida's ability to score a bit more than LSU.
Florida's opponents allow 21 ppg. Florida averages 31. Or, 148%.
LSU's opponents allow 21 ppg. LSU averages 24. Or, 114%.
Florida's opponents allow 319 ypg. Florida averages 340. Or, 106%.
LSU's opponents allow 331 ypg. LSU averages 327. Or, 99%.
The yards per game stats are similar. But the scoring is very different and reflects LSU's particularly heinous penalty and turnover habits so far this season.
THOUGHT #3: Florida has potentially significant limitations on offense for this game.
QB Brantley's ribs were injured bad enough for him to have someone else throw the football for him during practice this week. Meyer says he's good to go now. That probably just means he's not in pain ALL the time. Brantley's backups are both freshmen.
RB Jeff Demps is still struggling with an injured foot. Meyer says Demps will play, but Demps himself says his foot still bothers him.
SB Chris Rainey is still not playing football after his legal troubles.
OL Matt Patchan is still not playing. This is not a huge deal, since Florida's OL is pretty stout without Patchan. But it could be part of the reason Florida hasn't been able to establish a strong running game this season.
Those factors may be enough to negate Florida's advantage in scoring.
THOUGHT #4: This is not a new idea, but it fits with the flow of this post. LSU has not done well in the Swamp in recent history. However, there was an established conventional wisdom about the home team in the Auburn/LSU matchup until recently. LSU broke that string. This one is doomed to be broken as well. I'm just not sure this LSU offense can get it done.
THOUGHT #5: Both teams have killed themselves with penalties and turnovers. Both teams have offenses that are clearly better than their stats show, because both teams have killed scoring drives with mistakes, often within the red zone.
Bottom Line: Based purely on averages, Florida should win 15-13. Which obviously means these are two very evenly matched teams.
(This is the point where all the haters whine about how much of an idiot Miles is and how much of a well-tanned genius Meyer is. :hihi
The game will boil down to coaching, home field advantage, special teams, and luck. Two of those four (coaching, home field) favor the Gators right now. Special teams are even - Meyer always has very good special teams. But Les Miles is, according to the haters, the luckiest coach who has ever lived.
Wonder if he'll be lucky enough.
:geaux:
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