Run for the Roses: (Un) Official "Expert BCS Talk/Discussion" Thread (Wk of 11/20/05) | Page 2 | TigerFan.com

DarkHornet · Nov 21, 2005

Re: Run for the Roses: (Un) Official "Expert BCS Talk/Discussion" Thread (Wk of 11/20

islstl said:

Projected best finishes for LSU in the computer Polls:

...........Sagarin...A&H..Bill...Colley...KM....Wolfe
PSU....... 3.........3......5.......3.......3.........3......= 91 %
LSU....... 6.........5......3.......4.......5 ........6......= 85 %

In Colley, I projected LSU to win over WVU, to mimick where Georgia would be in their matrix after a win over GTech......it's going to be so close for 5th place with VTech...coin flip

This is too close to call, but with the Harris poll having closed the gap of our lead over Penn State by over half, I think the nod goes to Penn State to stay ahead of us in the BCS

Put it this way, if Georgia loses to GTech, there is no way for LSU to pass Penn State in the BCS

I think it comes down to this: North Carolina must beat Vtech this coming weekend in order for LSU to surpass Penn State in the BCS.....Vtech is wedged between Penn State and LSU in almost every computer poll.

So the order of significance this weekend is:

1 NC over VTech (yes even more significant than Georgia winning)
2 GA over GTech
3 Florida over FSU
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The very strange thing about the BCS this and last year as opposed to 2003 is the fact that EVERY human point counts. Penn State is done, over the next two weeks I think they may start to be forgotten about. I think if Virginia Tech closes out the year strong, they'll start taking votes away from Penn State in the humans, but not as many from LSU because we will still be winning (assuming we take care of our own business). If Penn State falls to 5th in the human polls, or even come close to tieing Virginia Tech, I think we pass Penn State. Of course in that scenario, we may need to worry about Virginia Tech passing us in the BCS.

islstl · Nov 21, 2005

Re: Run for the Roses: (Un) Official "Expert BCS Talk/Discussion" Thread (Wk of 11/20

I just don't think Penn State will lose the votes you are speaking of.

The voters these past 2 weeks have fallen in love with JoePa and given Penn State undeserving boosts in the human polls (mostly Harris but even some with the Coaches).

LSU must beat Arkansas much like it did to Ole Miss, and then give a pounding to Georgia much like it did in 2003 SEC CG....then maybe we can talk about human voter shifts coming our way in the Harris poll especially.

TejasTiger · Nov 21, 2005

Re: Run for the Roses: (Un) Official "Expert BCS Talk/Discussion" Thread (Wk of 11/20

islstl said:

I just don't think Penn State will lose the votes you are speaking of.

The voters these past 2 weeks have fallen in love with JoePa and given Penn State undeserving boosts in the human polls (mostly Harris but even some with the Coaches).
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You're right about the voters and PSU. By far, LSU was more impressive in routing Ole Miss than PSU was in a competitive game versus MSU, yet PSU picked up roughly 2 votes for every 1 LSU picked up following the Miami loss.

TejasTiger · Nov 21, 2005

Re: Run for the Roses: (Un) Official "Expert BCS Talk/Discussion" Thread (Wk of 11/20

Brad Edwards weighs in via ESPN.com

t one point in the wee hours of Sunday morning, spirits must have been quite high in many parts of Pennsylvania, Louisiana and Virginia.

Miami had already been upset by Georgia Tech, meaning either Penn State, LSU or Virginia Tech would be playing for the BCS title if either USC or Texas happened to lose one of its final two games. When Fresno State took a fourth-quarter lead on USC, the scenario that had seemed so improbable just a day earlier was on the verge of playing out.

But then reality struck in the form of a pass to Reggie Bush, a touchdown by LenDale White and an interception by Darnell Bing. Just like that, the opportunity for either USC or Texas to stumble was diminished to three games -- the Trojans against UCLA on Dec. 3, and the Longhorns at Texas A&M on Nov. 25 and versus either Colorado or Iowa State for the Big 12 championship on Dec. 3.

Given that UCLA will carry the nation's No. 103 defense into that game against the nation's No. 1 offense, and given that Texas has beaten its last two opponents (which both have the same win total as Texas A&M this season) by a combined score of 128-14, the odds do not favor the one-loss teams. But that's all they have left to hang their hopes on.

So, which team is in best position to capitalize if a shocking upset takes place? Let's start with the clubhouse leader, Penn State.

The Nittany Lions will be ranked third in this week's BCS Standings, but they will also be occupying sofas while the Tigers and Hokies play their final regular-season games this weekend and, assuming victories, their respective conference championship games next weekend. Both teams trail Penn State in the computer ratings, and it is unlikely either would be able to catch the Lions in that part of the formula. Games against 5-5 North Carolina (Va. Tech) and 4-6 Arkansas (LSU) certainly won't help that cause.

But if Florida State (at Florida) and Georgia (at Georgia Tech) can win key nonconference rivalry games this weekend, it would help the chances for Virginia Tech and LSU to make some upward movement in the computers by winning a conference title game Dec. 3. Virginia Tech could make slight gains by climbing over Ohio State in a couple of ratings, while LSU has room to move up several positions in every computer, especially with a win over a 9-2 Georgia team.

This means that LSU has the potential to gain ground on Penn State in the computer ratings, while the Nittany Lions don't have a good chance to gain on the Tigers in the polls. It's tough to impress the voters when you don't play. The question is whether LSU can gain enough to erase the gap that currently exists in the BCS Standings, and it projects to be very tight between the teams.

Virginia Tech's predicament is not just that it seems impossible to pass Penn State in the computers, but also that it will be difficult for the Hokies to overtake the Lions in the polls. Without either happening, Tech can't get to No. 2 in the BCS unless USC and Texas both lose ... and even then, a loss by LSU might also be necessary.

Sorry, Hokies. Looks like whatever visions of the Rose Bowl remain for once-beaten teams should only be dancing in the heads of Penn State and LSU. But if USC loses to UCLA and falls between LSU and Penn State in the polls, the Trojans would have a pretty good shot, too.
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Wins over Ark and Ga. aren't enough. They need to be impressive wins, and having both games on national TV--with very few other games on the schedule with which to compete for voter attention-- give LSU every opportunity to do just that: impress voters.

SpringTiger · Nov 21, 2005

Re: Run for the Roses: (Un) Official "Expert BCS Talk/Discussion" Thread (Wk of 11/20

islstl said:

USC is a different story, a close loss to UCLA and they may only fall to the #2 spot in the human polls....
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Does that mean that if usc and ut were both to lose, usc would stay at #1??? Has a #1 team EVER lost a game and remained at #1? Has a #1 team ever lost and only dropped to #2?

islstl · Nov 21, 2005

Re: Run for the Roses: (Un) Official "Expert BCS Talk/Discussion" Thread (Wk of 11/20

Oh damn I forgot VTech is going to the Conference Championship game

Ok, so it's Saturday, December 3rd and you're watching the following unfold:

LSU beats Georgia
FSU upsets VTech
Colorado upsets UT

LSU nudges Penn State out for the #2 spot in the BCS and plays USC for the BCS championship.

islstl · Nov 21, 2005

Re: Run for the Roses: (Un) Official "Expert BCS Talk/Discussion" Thread (Wk of 11/20

SpringTiger said:

Does that mean that if usc and ut were both to lose, usc would stay at #1??? Has a #1 team EVER lost a game and remained at #1? Has a #1 team ever lost and only dropped to #2?
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I know for a fact a team has lost and only dropped to #2, I just don't have an example off hand. Someone surely can help out with that.

Don't think anyone has ever stayed #1 after losing.

I am not sure USC would only fall to #2, I think LSU would be #1, Penn State #2 and USC #3. But even if USC were to fall only to #2, that assures LSU to beat Penn State for the #2 spot in the BCS as USC has wedged themselves between LSU and Penn State in the human polls.

So regardless, LSU is definitely in the title game if both UT and USC loses...the only question would be the opponent. Penn State or USC. Penn State could conceivably surpass USC in half of the computer polls and if PSU takes the #2 spot in the human polls, they would be our opponent.

TejasTiger · Nov 21, 2005

Re: Run for the Roses: (Un) Official "Expert BCS Talk/Discussion" Thread (Wk of 11/20

Well, the mightly OU team of 2003--one that was hyped just as much as this year's USC---fell from 1st to 3rd after the conf. title loss BUT...you had zero undefeateds and only three 1-loss teams that year, so OU simply became the lowest-rated 1-loss out of 3.

This season, a loss puts them below an undefeated and among 3 other 1-loss teams, 2 of whom would win conference title games that very same day against top 20 teams. Dropping USC to the "lowest-rated 1-loss" like OU would put them in 5th place.

I say they drop to 4th--ahead of Va. Tech, behind Texas, LSU, PSU--in the human polls, a respectable drop for a great team that suffered such a late loss.

DarkHornet · Nov 21, 2005

Re: Run for the Roses: (Un) Official "Expert BCS Talk/Discussion" Thread (Wk of 11/20

Two more computers are out, LSU #5 in Billingsley, #9 in Anderson Hestor. I've added these two to my BCS Standings page, and it looks like LSU is closer to being caught by Virginia Tech than LSU catching Penn State.

I expected Penn State to increase their lead over us this week, but we need to start closing the gap in a hurry. What I hadn't counted on was LSU possibly STAYING behind 2-loss teams in the final computer rankings. The computers are in love with the Big Ten this year, and it looks like LSU may end behind Ohio State in several computers by the time the season is over. That's a big hurt.

LSUDork · Nov 21, 2005

here is how I solve this...Expect to NOT be playing in the Rose Bowl and then if the stars align you'll be happy.

Seriously, the scenarios are too complicated and unfortuntely rely on pollster emotions than actual achievements. The hurricane thing is already light years away from voters' minds because they have felt sorry for that geezer in PA for years. Everyone has an agenda in this thing, and most of them do not include LSU. Even if we were undefeated, the love affair with USC and Texas wouldn't have let us jump either of them so I'll just be happy with whatever happens.

Remember the unlikely circumstances that led us in 2003...OU losing, Boise State (or Idaho) losing to Hawaii at 2:30 am. That Hawaii win dropped USC's SoS by .2 points...enough us to slip past. And that was when everyone had 1 loss. The circumstances this time around are even LESS likely.

I would love to see LSU play in the Rose but c'mon, we need get back to earth to see the Arkansas game. We need to scare the bejeezus outta Georgia.