Sorry if it has been asked already. Will the human polls be publised at the normal times or will they hold em back for the 7pm announcement?
Hear, Hear! I think that does it----voters who may be skittish about jumping FLA over UM (which are many of the voters, I would presume), can (will-?) take cover in the computer rankings that leak out over the course of the morning today. In other words, they'll say, "well, the computers are muddled enough that I don't think I can change my vote", sort of the way replay officials don't overturn calls made on the field (i.e., UM over FLA in the last poll) if they don't have "conclusive video evidence". Add in the fact that keeping UM right where they are in the human polls helps avoid the rather unpleasant business of a "split" NC (#3 AP Fla beats #1 AP OSU but #2 AP UM beats a still-top 10 USC and retains its spot ahead of UF in the final AP...certainly possible). Sure, sure, you can say the AP "doesn't count" since it's not part of the BCS, but millions of fans sure thought winning the AP title "counted" from 1936-2004, so it's wishful thinking to think a Michigan that finishes #1 in the final AP won't claim a MNC (their last MNC was split, FWIW). I'll admit I want (very, very, very, very badly) to get FUSC in the Rose, so I am biased. However, as a college football and SEC football fan, can a BCS system that makes a strong SEC champ the odd man out 2 out of the last 3 years possibly survive in the long run? Can you stick with a system that shortchanges the biggest conference of them all? It's akin to a MLB playoff system that is skewed in bias against the Yankees. I'd imagine such a system wouldn't last long, if that was the case...
Are you saying that one computer poll is equal to 35 voters? This seems a little high to me. A flip of one computer poll (assuming it isn't one thrown out) is worth 0.25/25, or 0.01 BCS points. 0.01 is equivalent to 0.01*2850 = 28.5 Harris poll voters or 0.01*1575 = 15.75 Coaches poll voters. By these calcs, the number seems to be between 16 and 29 depending on the mix of vote switches. What am I doing wrong?
I can't remember if they do. My guess is that they are held back until the final BCS standings are announced, otherwise with these computer polls coming out like they are some BCS guru out there would leak out the winner. I am trying to think back to 2003. And I sure do seem to remember not knowing the human polls and just praying the voters had enough sense to move OU from #1 to at least the #3 spot behind LSU. I also remember the NY Times didn't publish until right at the time of the announcement or slightly thereafter. Of course, they aren't one of the polls used anymore.
My math was slightly off here. It was 15 voters, not 10, changing their minds in favor of Florida if Sagarin had gone Florida's way, yielding: Sagarin favors Florida = 15 out of 133 = 11.3 % Sagarin favors Michigan = 45 out of 133 = 33.8 %
This sangarin ranking is pathetic. A couple of weeks ago I was looking at his SOS and found that 7 Pac-10 teams made up the Top 10 strongest schedules. How can that be when at any point in time you have 4 SEC teams in the top 15 throughout the year and 1 Pac-10 team? His rating is screwed up. Every talking head talks about how tough the SEC is and that it is nearly impossible to go undefeated in it. Yet the SEC gets absolutely no credit in the Sagarin joke of a ranking. The SEC presidents should rip the NCAA and the BCS a new one because of this. The SEC has gotten screwed ever since 2004 and LSU made it in with one loss in 2003.
I don't know where you get this 25 number you are using. I already made the one correction that instead of only 10 voters, it would have been 15 had Sagarin gone Florida's way. If the computers represent 1/3 of your score, and 4 are used (2 are thrown out, the high and low), then one computer poll would carry the weight of 1/12 of the total BCS score. I'll go through my numbers again to make sure I am accurate. I think my other problem was I ran the hypothetical using only the coaches poll, not figuring the 114 voters Harris has vs the 63 the Coaches poll has.
The Florida message board complained about this very fact. They said Sagarin did not favor SEC teams at all. I did notice how UCLA is #16 in their poll. I mean come on, a 7-5 team being #16?
