Hey islstl, any thoughts on Jerry Palm's projection (referenced in the Advocate this morning)? I'm guessing this is just a gut feeling on his part, one made before Sagarin came out this morning.
The 25 comes from how the BCS score for the computers is calculated. It is not important. A simpler way to look at it is a switch of one computer poll that counts is equal to 1/4 th of the computer score. Therefore 1/4th of either of the other polls much switch to compensate. There are 63 coaches poll voters therefore 63/4 = 15.75 or 114/4 or 28.5 Harris voters.
My rational on his ratings is that he must give a lot of weight to style, or how good you are against the spread. While I have no idea how good it is, I think his poll is better designed for betting purposes as opposed to determining who would win a tournament. A few years ago, I think it was the 2001 season before we beat TN in the SEC CG, TN had just beaten FL. In every one of his published stats on that report, TN had the advantage over FL, yet he had FL ranked 2 or 3 spots ahead of them. TN was just a team that won; FL was a team that won with style and usually beat the spread regardless of how big when they won. I tried to send him an email calling him on it, but I don't know if he got it as he never responded. As far as his SOS, he must put a great deal of emphasis on OOC games. The PAC 10, by far, has the best OOC schedule of all the conferences. There is merit in giving more emphasis to OOC games, but I think he's gone too far.
I ran the numbers in my other Florida thread and came up with: 7 Coaches 14 Harris 21 total voters if you mix it up about evenly based on the 114 to 63 ratio. It's still a lot closer than having to get 45 voters change their minds.
No, it still stands at 85 %. Still have 2 more computer polls to come out. Wolfe being the most important to Florida's chances that remain.
Here is what I figure to be the current voter configuration if no one flip flops Michigan and Florida: .....Coaches.....1st.....2nd....3rd.....4th 1. Ohio State....63.......0.......0.......0 = 1575 2. Michigan.......0........48.....10......5 = 1492 3. Florida..........0........15.....48......0 = 1464 .....Harris........1st.....2nd....3rd...4th 1. Ohio State...114.......0.......0....0 = 2850 2. Michigan.......0........87.....27....0 = 2709 3. Florida..........0........27.....87....0 = 2649 So you can see Florida has already gained 12 points in the Coaches and 26 points in the Harris on Michigan based solely on USC's loss. This is because Florida had many more votes shifted up than Michigan due to the USC loss. So 14 coaches and 30 Harris voters switching Michigan/Florida on their ballot give us a virtual tie.
Islstl, I enjot reading your analysis, and mean this in the nicest possible way. You should try getting laid or something. Go take a walk outside maybe. You have way too much time on your hands my friend.;
I live for this. Stats, numbers, projections, etc. I have a computer science degree with a minor in math. Go figure. If I had to get laid right about now, I think she would have to have a "BCS" tattoo on her ass. Then I would throw her out the bed after she mistakenly calls me Jerry (Palm).
I remember when BB King's wife had a B tatooed on each of her buns to honor BB's 50th Birthday. When she bent over to show him, he said, "Who's BoB?"
