Well if my predictions for today's elections comes to fruition (see thread with Cruz upsetting Trump in Missouri and Kasich winning Ohio), then all hell breaks loose. So let's say the delegate count looks something like this going into the convention - 1238 to win): Trump 1069 Cruz 937 Kasich 291 Rubio 163 Carson 8 Bush 4 Paul 1 Fiorina 1 Certainly Cruz would be the one to say coalesce behind me, not Kasich.
Yeah, I understand your point but I think you underestimate how much those guys hate Cruz. Even so, that's why I still have him as a long shot even if they get to the convention. It will be really hard to pick a guy with 10% of the delegates no matter how much you want to pick him.
Brokered means backroom deals with senior party officials determining who the nominee will be. Think Mitt Romney. Contested means the delegates themselves decide by taking one ballot after another until someone reaches 1237.
Last contested nomination was 1976 GOP. Reagan challenged Ford. Ford beat Reagan 1187 to 1070 on the very first ballot. What happened in 1976 was that there were enough uncommitted delegates to not allow Ford to wrap up the nomination by the time they got to the convention.
