SO now that the BCS ranking are out, who do we need to pull for?

The only possibilities for the BCS CG are Ohio St/Michigan and Ohio St/USC. The voters made their statement on Sunday. Florida nor Arkansas have any chance to overtake Michigan. Neither will overtake Michigan in the computer polls and the voters won't help either SEC team enough to compensate for that. Best that they can hope for is a solid #3 in the computer polls behind a solid #2 Michigan, which means they have to be voted a fairly solid #2 ahead of Michigan (basically 2 out of every 3 voters have to give the nod to the SEC team over Michigan) in the human polls to overtake them, and that just won't happen after witnessing Sunday's voting. Florida State picked a bad year to be mediocre. That's what is really hurting any chance for Florida at this point. They needed 2 more big wins, not just 1. One remote possibility, and it is remote, is that either Arkansas totally destroys both LSU and Florida or Florida destroys Arkansas, then the SEC Champ could sneak in. I don't see either of those 2 scenarios taking place. Even if it did, the voters would have to elevate the SEC Champ in the manner described above. Notre Dame will not be voted ahead of Michigan in the polls should they beat USC (since they lost to Michigan in a route). They are out of contention as well.

Ok, so now that we took care of that, let's examine the likely candidates for the at-large bids.

If it's an Ohio State/USC BCS CG, then Michigan will automatically get an at-large berth to the Rose Bowl. That leaves 3 at-large bids open. If it's Ohio State/Michigan, USC gets an automatic PAC-10 champ berth to the Rose Bowl, still leaving 3 at-large bids open (Michigan can be thought of as an at-large to the BCS title game, sounds strange, but its essentially true). To be eligible for an at-large, you must have 9 wins and finish in the top 14 in the BCS rankings.

At-large possibles:

Boise State
Louisville/WVU
Notre Dame
Florida
LSU

5 teams with 3 spots available (I am only counting 1 Big East team above who doesn't win the Big East...same for Arkansas/Florida as SEC Champ with Florida as loser still being possible at-large...Arkansas either wins the SEC CG or they are out entirely)

Here is what to hope for:

1. Boise State losing to Nevada: believe me, if Boise State loses this game, the voters will drop them so fast, Boise St. won't know what him them. They will truly be blue. Done. Finished. Caput.
2. Big East conundrum: it's messy at this point because the winner of the conference is so much in the air. If Louisville loses to Pittsburgh this weekend, then no Big East team will likely get an at-large (Rutgers/WVU winner will go in as Big East champ, loser is out of the BCS picture as well as Louisville). That would be huge. Preferably WVU beats Rutgers and gets automatic conference bid, just to be sure (vs. Rutgers winning conference and then worrying if a 2 loss WVU might get an at-large).
3. Wisconsin: they have no chance. With OSU already in the BCS CG, and Michigan guaranteed no worse than a Rose Bowl at-large berth, this automatically rules out Wisconsin of a BCS berth (can't have 3 teams from same conference if a team from the conference is in the BCS title game).
4. Notre Dame: If they win, they are automatically in. If they lose, I still think they will get picked, with only 2 losses. Notre Dame is "almost" assured of an at-large at this point. Best scenario is for USC to blow out Notre Dame just as Michigan did, showing everyone that Notre Dame is overrated (which is what many suspect). They haven't beaten anyone up to this point. To lose badly to the only 2 tough teams on their schedule would likely rule them out of BCS contention.
5. SEC conumdrum: With an LSU win over Arkansas and then an Arkansas win over Florida, LSU would be assured of being the highest ranked SEC team in the BCS. That's a definite, but assures LSU of nothing unfortunately. Best bet scenario is for Arkansas to lose to Florida to get Arkansas completely out of the picture. Florida goes in as automatic SEC Champ (not an at-large). If Arkansas wins, then Florida is in the mix (top 14 in the BCS) along with LSU as an at-large. I don't see 3 SEC teams being picked in BCS bowl games.

Here are my biggest games in order of importance:

1. Nevada beating Boise State (definitely out, otherwise a Boise State win and they are automatically in)
2. Pittsburgh beating Louisville (definitely out and almost assures that no Big East team will get an at-large)
3. Florida beating Arkansas (Arkansas definitely out....avoids a Florida/LSU battle for at-large should Arkansas win instead)
4. USC demolishes Notre Dame (Notre Dame could be out, otherwise a Notre Dame win and they are automatically in)

Boise State is a most critical game since a Boise State win guarantees them a BCS at-large berth. A Boise State loss and they are out of the picture. Ironically, in 2003 we needed Boise State to beat Hawaii in order for LSU to barely edge out USC for #2 in the BCS (anybody who remembers probably stayed up until 1 AM watching that game). If Boise State and Notre Dame automatically get in with wins, then chances get real dicey for LSU. Only one spot would remain with LSU, with a Big East team (Louisville or WVU) and Florida in the mix potentially.

So 2 of the 4 events above would have to take place to essentially guarantee LSU a spot. Our best chance based on likelihood is USC beating Notre Dame (soundly?) and Florida beating Arkansas. Yes LSU fans, we must root for USC in that case. Yes, we'll have to hear for an entire month how USC is going for a national title for the 4th straight season (that would be very painful to take, I know). One last aside, a USC and Florida win assures that WVU would not finish #4 in the BCS, which would automatically get them in as an at-large.

Note: Should USC lose to both ND and UCLA, USC still goes in as automatic PAC-10 champ to the Rose Bowl.

Appreciate if someone can go over this with a fine tooth comb and see if there are any holes in my logic. Gumborue is in total agreement with this from his post. His only difference was including Wisconsin as a possibility.

I have a headache.

 

I changed it up. So your post no longer matches my scenarios.

 

Now, let's look at a hypothetical involving worst case scenario:

1. Boise State wins out
2. Louisville wins out
3. WVU beats Rutgers
4. Arkansas beats Florida
5. Notre Dame beats USC

Ohio State plays Michigan in BCS CG.
Michigan automatically selected as at-large to Rose Bowl.
Boise State is automatically in as at-large.
Notre Dame is automatically in as at-large.
Louisville automatically in as Big East champ.
Arkansas automatically in as SEC Champ.

1 at-large berth would remain with 3 teams to choose from (ranked in order of final BCS poll):

1. WVU
2. LSU
3. Florida

This is the absolute worst case scenario we may not want to find ourselves in. That is why Notre Dame getting demolished by USC is so very important (basically eliminates them) and frees up a 2nd at-large berth. Arkansas demolishing Florida could go a long way as well. LSU beating Arkansas soundly is preferable. What worries me most is a bowl picking Florida over LSU simply because they beat us in the regular season. WVU should be able to maintain their lead on us in the BCS based on their win over Rutgers.

That being said, an LSU win over Arkansas definitely puts us right in the mix. There is reasonable chance to get picked. On the flipside, it's ultimately up to the bowls to decide who they like, should this worst case scenario come to fruition.

 

If Arkansas beats Florida, they are in as SEC Champs automatically, so they wouldn't have anything to do with LSU's hopes of an at-large bid. In this case, however, LSU would have to contend with a Florida team not far behind them in the BCS (within 3-4 spots at most) and a bowl picking Florida over LSU since they beat us in the regular season. That's what I would like to avoid. So who wins the SEC CG is of utmost importance to LSU. Go Florida!

 

You are definitely on track, except Michigan would end up #2 in the BCS and Florida would finish #3.

Florida would go to the Sugar as SEC Champs.

Likeliest bowl scenario based on your list of victors (also assumes Louisville wins out, WVU beats Rutgers):

BCS CG: Ohio State vs. Michigan
Rose: USC vs. LSU/WVU
Fiesta: Texas vs. Boise St.
Orange: Louisville vs. ACC Champ (Gtech/BC/WF)
Sugar: Florida vs. Notre Dame

LSU or WVU would be left out of the mix. I would hope to God the Rose Bowl would have enough sense to see that a USC/LSU matchup is the most ideal by far.

 

Your're right on with everything you said, except Wisconsin is out of the picture since Ohio State is in the BCS CG and Michigan will be either play them or be in the Rose Bowl as an at-large. That means a 3rd team from that conference cannot be picked as a BCS bowl participant.

Everything else you said makes perfect sense.

 

Yeah I considered that. But all the talking heads always seem to shun that kinda situation, notwithstanding the unusual circumstances for them wanting the OSU/Michigan rematch.

I just don't see the BCS CG having a rematch and then the Rose coming right behind them and doing the exact same thing.

Don't you think the Rose Bowl would be drooling for an USC/LSU matchup? The storylines would be bountiful.