First, Wellstone who was SUPPOSED to be in trouble in MN is not. Wellstone is 9% ahead in his senate race. Alexander is 13 points ahead in TN but that is the Thompson seat so no gain there. Now, here is the bad news for the elephant men: 1) Allard is a statistical dead heat in CO (actually 'trailing' Strickland by 1 point) -- current GOP seat 2) Arkansas is dead even -- current GOP seat 3) South Carolina has the GOP BEHIND in Strom Thurmond's seat so that would be a DEM takeaway 4) New Jersey seems safe for the Democrats as Lautenberg is stretching his lead out to 12 points Carnahan in Missouri is 6 points behind which would be a GOP gain if that continues, but as shown above, there seems almost no scenario where the elephant men gain seats and several where they lose Senate seats. I didn't see New Hampshire listed but last I heard that was a close one that could go either way, and since Smith had that seat, the GOP can't gain that seat, they can only lose it if the Democrats win it.